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1/ a little Worldbank Corona-Bond thread for info only

a lot has been written about the virus, and a few days ago some articles popped up on Reuters, FT etc highlighting a rare corona related "catastrophe-bond" issued by IBRD - the lending arm from the world bank
2/n here is the Reuters article a few days ago when the published death rate crossed the 2000 mark and this bond fell 50%

uk.reuters.com/article/us-chi…
3/n here is the original world bank press release of the issuance June 2017

worldbank.org/en/news/press-…
4/n This tweet "so close to maturity and yet so close to wipeout" made me curious as I wasn't aware of it, so I googled the previous articles. His BBG screenshot didn't show any prices, my retail TR platform only shows super old price updates. I guess they are now single digits.
5/n I have never traded a cat-bond, so I am not an expert at all, but these are highly complex structures for specific events (floods, hurricanes, etc) for event risk and usually attract very specific bond investors.
6/n here are some samples from the 386 pages long prospectus, description and endless disclaimers. And as the death rate of the COVID-19 sadly keeps going up, so does the probability of the wipe-out for the investors
7/n events, counts, locations, etc are very specifically explained in a bond prospectus, here more samples
8/n whoever invested in those bonds, will face a loss. But regardless of this specific corona-bond, here are two of the world largest Re-Insurance companies HanRe and MunichRe latest stock performance since South Korea and Italy cases shook the global market.
9/end the two websites everyone is following

a) avatorl.org/covid-19/

b) gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
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More from @MacroTechnicals see all

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𝘬𝘢𝘪
@MacroTechnicals
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 28Feb20 wk9 thread 1/n

2020 The Year of Corona-Bat

• historic global RiskOFF
• huge vol spike
• rush to safe haven
• Creditspreads sharply wider
• corp bond new issuance frozen
• carry-unwound

...no surprise: China PMI
2/n global markets performance wk9 was epic, non-stop risk selling every day after Italy+South Korea COVID cases spiked and further spreads around. FOMO took losses, algo-selling, index hedgers, shorts, carry unwind all at once.

Cash is king.

there was nowhere to hide.
3/n table with 4weeks changes:
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𝘬𝘢𝘪
@MacroTechnicals
black swan refinancing risk again ?

I can imagine secondary corp bond trading - the bloodline to refinance - is one-way street, but if new issuance pipeline is frozen, FED will emulate ECB/BoJ/BoE and will start a QE4 buying corp debt ar last.

CDX/ITRAXX starts to blow up
FED QE CSPP... if this uncertainty and global demand shock continues (corp and leisure travel slowed down, airlines shutting flights, manufacturing slowdown, car sales take a hit etc), that missing cash flow in over leveraged corp balance sheet could trigger that QE
ITRAXX indices risk gauge spreads moved to a 5M high, but CDX NA IG and HY shot up like a rocket.

Lending facilities to HF also in question , hence huge unwinding of carry trades (e.g. borrow EUR, invest US stocks)... EURUSD isn’t roaring due to great Euroarea economy
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𝘬𝘢𝘪
@MacroTechnicals
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 21Feb20 wk8 thread 1/n

all eyes again on headline risk COVID-19 ...

• surprise spike in South Korea the tech hub, spike in Italy, hence, a second global supply chain uncertainty wave just started

• RiskOFF
2/n the supply chain disruption is mostly felt in the flight to US$ vs almost anything else, but last week some previous outliers MXN, JPY, HKD caught up, and KRW got hit of course. here is a 2020 YTD heatmap of FX/US$
3/n core Risk Gauges Bonds, Credit spreads and VIX heatmap: after the initial fear 1st weekend Feb, market sort of shrugged it off, and now we see a 2nd wave. wider credit spreads is more concerning, and a global central bank liquidity / rate cuts are on the cards
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Caius Ugochukwu
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FarmGreedy™
@BashorunGa_
Few days ago,I made my opinion public by saying I fared better under @MBuhari's admin than GEJ's,some people felt offended and wailed uncontrollably under my tweet.
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A few days ago, I promised to tell this story. Been procrastinating for a while, so let's get to it. #thread
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Avon Healthcare
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