black swan refinancing risk again ?
I can imagine secondary corp bond trading - the bloodline to refinance - is one-way street, but if new issuance pipeline is frozen, FED will emulate ECB/BoJ/BoE and will start a QE4 buying corp debt ar last.
CDX/ITRAXX starts to blow up
I can imagine secondary corp bond trading - the bloodline to refinance - is one-way street, but if new issuance pipeline is frozen, FED will emulate ECB/BoJ/BoE and will start a QE4 buying corp debt ar last.
CDX/ITRAXX starts to blow up
FED QE CSPP... if this uncertainty and global demand shock continues (corp and leisure travel slowed down, airlines shutting flights, manufacturing slowdown, car sales take a hit etc), that missing cash flow in over leveraged corp balance sheet could trigger that QE
ITRAXX indices risk gauge spreads moved to a 5M high, but CDX NA IG and HY shot up like a rocket.
Lending facilities to HF also in question , hence huge unwinding of carry trades (e.g. borrow EUR, invest US stocks)... EURUSD isn’t roaring due to great Euroarea economy
Lending facilities to HF also in question , hence huge unwinding of carry trades (e.g. borrow EUR, invest US stocks)... EURUSD isn’t roaring due to great Euroarea economy
and similar to 2008, it looks like HF also unwinding safe haven assets, Gold is down 4.5%, Platinum -15%, Silver -11%, even the 🚀 star Palladium is off 9% from peak. I guess, margin calls on stock sell off led to scramble for cash, hence precious metals selling too
safe haven bonds really got a huge boost, duration monster UB_F +10% !, belly 5Y and short end 2Y dropped a massive 50bp during the stock sell off to below 1%. FED is 2 rate cuts at least behind, which doesn’t stop COVID-19, but rate cuts plus a possible temporary Corp debt QE
