@verdadcap has kindly shared a timely serving of #FoodForThought on #Crisis#Investing - Go grab a serving here: mailchi.mp/verdadcap/cris… It holds general & specific ideas 2 consider but the summarisations of past crisis are perhaps the most illuminating..a few takeaways..(1/10)
2/10 So where do you deploy funds in a time of #crisis? #Investing with those super connected #PE guys with long time horizons wld appear optimal but they tend to do their buying to the sound of violins when credit is cheap & plentiful...
3/10 #Investing in a #Crisis - the best opportunities may be unearthed in listed mid-size companies with solid 'boring' businesses tht has remained somewhat unloved in the euphoria in the good times...
4/10 #Crisis#Investing requires confidence & cash..As 2 the saying; "Liquidity is a coward, it's never around when you really need it." Rational confidence comes from having done the work & being prepared..As @verdadcap states; "Fortuna eruditis favet."
5/10 #Crisis#Investing - A look at #FixedIncome, Remember: "The defining feature of high yield, decreasing incremental returns to #risk, still exists in a crisis. The tipping point is just pushed further down the ratings spectrum."
6/10 A voyage through the major financial #crisis since 1970 should help refresh the mind after an intoxicating decade of 'good times'...Here a taste of 'uber #Stagflation'...Yes stock markets can drop 50% in times of double digit inflation...
7/10 The journey continues...Welcome to 1986 when the real value of #Oil fell 80% in less than a year and #Texas and #Mexico hit the wall...#Crisis#Investing
8/10 The #Crisis exploration continues...2000 the wheels came off the #Tech driven orgy and the longest expansion the market had ever seen (then) came to an abrupt end..."The tech sector lost nearly $1.8trln in market value between March & Sept...
9/10 A #Crisis voyage - Next stop: Northern Rock and the pain of 2007...when the #US stock market fell 777 points in a day and 8.7mln US jobs were lost...
10/10 Last but not least, some European flavour...#Crisis#Investing....Lessons from a time not so long ago...
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
3/5 #US looking for some revenues...#tax bracket creep...An attempt at some humour; modelling potential cuts to deficit to keep debt equal to 100% of GDP...Consequences of rising #debt & some historic context...#Deficits 2020-2030...#Macro#Risk
The Tower of Basel dropped the 'Quarterly Review: International banking & financial market developments' so I loaded up on espresso & blueberries & dove in2 this trove of soothing CB lingo mixed with some Sufi wisdom & colourful illlus: bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_… Some takeaways 1/5
2/5 Riddle me this; "Stock markets rebound unevenly amid downgraded earnings expectations." & "Corp #credit spreads tighten despite indications of persistently high credit #risk" & "funding costs for #EM sovs drop despite weak pf inflows."
3/5 Heads up: "Firms desired leverage can be excessive if companies do not account for all financial distress costs..." "Share buybacks rose just as valuations began to rise..." & "#Credit#risk rose with leverage but it only revealed itself during market stress..."
WIPO has published their +400 page 'Global #Innovation Index 2020: Who will finance innovation report out...full of insights...here are a few key takeaways...(1/3) Bracing for a downturn & impact from the economic slowdown...
3/3 Top R&D spending by sector as share of global top R&D spenders...Top R&D spending firm by sector...Share of global #VC inv by sector...The positive relationship between #innovation & development...
@McKinsey_MGI has a report out titled; '#Risk, resilience & rebalancing in global value chains' it holds some good insights into trends in #GlobalTrade...Here are some takeaways...1/4 Large companies has global #SupplyChains w. 1000s of suppliers, disruption risks varies...
2/4 #Globalisation has been changing in the last decade, sector concentration varies between industries, poten. losses from #SupplyChain disruptions can be as high as 42% of 1 years EBITDA..Supply chain #shocks are becoming more frequent & severe...