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WHAT WOULD THE RACE LOOK LIKE AFTER A BIDEN WIN IN SOUTH CAROLINA? I've got a fairly detailed analysis here:
fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-…
Per our model, a *big* Biden win wouldn't *quite* put him and Bernie at parity, but you can start to see a scenario where things unravel for Sanders.

A narrow Biden win is different; it keeps Biden viable but leaves him with a fair bit of work to do.
And a Bernie win in South Carolina would leave Bernie in a very very strong position, obviously.

But Sanders's polling this week hasn't been great in SC, Super Tuesday and March states. And Biden, *with* a SC win, is in a position to reemerge as the main rival to him.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Buttigieg dropping out may actually increase the likelihood of a contested convention. He was polling at <15% almost everywhere on Super Tuesday, meaning he was tracking to get very few delegates, but his votes will help other candidates to get over 15% and get delegates.
@chrislhayes OK, so our forecast has been updated with Buttigieg dropping out. The major effect is to help "no majority" at the expense of Sanders for the reason I explained above. ^^

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
@chrislhayes Buttigieg dropping also improved Biden's plurality chances slightly (34% -> 36%) and lowered Bernie's slightly (63% -> 60%). Again, this is mainly because of the effects on the delegate math; more candidates getting to 15% means less chance that Sanders runs up the score on Tues.
Read 4 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
OK, Super Tuesday win probabilities. Then I'll go to bed.

CA—Sanders 96%
TX—Biden 51%, Sanders 42%, Bloomberg 7%
NC—Biden 69%, Sanders 21%, Bloomberg 10%
VA—Biden 50%, Sanders 39%, Bloomberg 10%
MA—Sanders 63%, Warren 29%
MN—Klobuchar 57%, Sanders 39%
CO—Sanders 85%, Biden 6%, Warren 5%
TN—Biden 61%, Sanders 24%, Bloomberg 12%
AL—Biden 78%, Bloomberg 11%, Sanders 10%
OK—Biden 45%, Bloomberg 26%, Sanders 26%
AR—Biden 39%, Sanders 29, Bloomberg 29%, Buttigieg 6%
UT—Sanders 88%, Warren 5%
ME—Sanders 67%, Biden 12%, Bloomberg 9%, Warren 6%, Buttigieg 6%
VT—Sanders >99%
AS—Sanders 36%, Biden 30%, Bloomberg 20%, Warren 8%
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
The problem with campaign coverage is that the press does analysis but doesn't take it seriously and kind of sucks at it. (Much worse than baseball, where the profession has improved and advanced.) Like, most of this stuff wasn't that hard to see.
It wasn't hard to see that Biden, even in his diminished state, still had one of the 2 broadest coalitions along with Sanders. Certainly broader than Buttigieg. Wasn't hard to see, after he'd been wrongly counted out the whole campaign, that SC could be a comeback moment for him.
It wasn't hard to see that Bloomberg had the *potential* to flop. Wasn't hard to see that momentum often reverses itself, as it has for the past 6 zillion primaries, and that a rising object today is often a falling one a week later.
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Gavin Sheridan
@gavinsblog
*mulls Tesla thread that's been stewing in my head for months*
Ok. For this thread I'm actually going to go to my local and order a nice pint of Murphy's and tweet from there.

It feels like the market has suddenly woken up to Tesla lately (to too large a degree perhaps), but for nerds like me involved in them since 2013, it's gas craic...
I have more thoughts on the next 10 years for Tesla..
Read 37 tweets
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mathieu gallard
@mathieugallard
🇺🇸🗳️ Dans pile un mois, c’est le début d'une longue et palpitante saison électorale aux #EtatsUnis avec le caucus de l’#Iowa lors duquel 14 candidats vont concourir à l'investiture du parti démocrate. #primaires
🇺🇸🗳️ Au niveau national, peu d'évolutions en un an de campagne :

➡️#Biden reste en tête

➡️Les candidats de l’aile gauche #Sanders et #Warren le suivent à distance

➡️#Buttigieg est le seul autre candidat à se démarquer, les autres faisant (pour l’instant ?) de la figuration
🇺🇸🗳️ Mais les sondages nationaux ont peu d’importance à ce stade : si un candidat crée la surprise lors d’une des premières primaires, il peut impulser une dynamique à sa campagne (le « momentum ») qui l’avantagera lors des scrutins suivants.
Read 41 tweets
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Maya Contreras
@mayatcontreras
1/Regarding the polling coming out now: Nate Silver put these early polling stats together in 2011. He updated the data here: fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-… What moves someone up in the polls the most? Name recognition. Who has the most name recognition right now? Biden and Sanders.
2/The thing with name recognition and media coverage: it's a 'self-perpetuating cycle'. If you have name recognition➡️the media tends to cover you more ➡️which helps with your polling➡️which helps you fundraise➡️ so you can create more ads➡️which gives you more name recognition
3/I've talked a lot about 'Horse-Race', 'Game Framing', & 'Script based' coverage on here and my podcast. That's what the media & statisticians are doing right now. It's 'poll-driven' coverage. They're looking to create conflict, excitement, and competition.
Read 14 tweets
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Arturo R. Garcia
@aboynamedart
So as a wrestling fan, I feel like trying something today. Let's do an annotation thread on last night's John Oliver piece re: WWE and healthcare.
For starters, that bit about WWE losing the rights to "WWF" to the World Wildlife Fund? True. Don't fuck with panda lawyers.
cnet.com/news/wrestling…
Oliver: "I like wrestling." That's cool. Here's the examples he chose:

- Jake Roberts & the cobra: Taped 21 October 1991
Read 72 tweets
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Dan Hopkins
@dhopkins1776
With Sen. Sanders throwing his hat into the ring, some data and observations from his 2016 primary campaign... 1/10
As with any political coalition of any meaningful size, Sanders' 2016 supporters weren't all alike. Sanders' 2016 campaign combined voters on the left w/ more disaffected, anti-establishment voters. I wrote about this coalition for @538politics here: fivethirtyeight.com/features/does-… 2/10
Take Sanders' 2016 victory in West Virginia Dem primary. Sanders did better in the places where Keith Judd had done better running against Obama in 2012. The ultimate protest candidate, Judd was a federal inmate who won > 40% of the WV vote in 2012. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
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Alex Vandermaas-Peeler
@AlexVandermaas
Every year I look forward to @FiveThirtyEight's annual chart round up. Pretty cool to see @PRRIpoll data I worked on on this list. fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-4…
I'll take this as an opportunity to thread a few of my favorite pieces and charts from @fivethirtyeight from this year because my dog is asleep on my feet and this seems like a perfectly acceptable way to procrastinate moving and being productive.
First, this incredibly insightful piece from @dcoxpolls on how abortion is increasingly becoming more mobilizing for the left than it is for the right fivethirtyeight.com/features/abort…
Read 8 tweets

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