Thread by @aryadoctoryet

Because #COVID19 / #coronavirus is so hot right now, here’s a little #tweetorial on

How To Emotionally Not Explode During Pandemic 2019 (and Survive!)

First question on everyone’s mind is basically “will I die?” & here is what we know so far.

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When nerds study this question, the CFR or the Case Fatality Rate becomes THE tool. It’s the best early measure we have to predict the likelihood of death from exposure to #COVID2019.

What is the CFR for COVID19? About 2.3%.

Others -
SARS : 9.6%
MERS: 34.4%
Flu: 0.5%

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Knowing HOW it’s calculated is important to tease out any nuance.

Easy math: deaths / confirmed cases.

The CFR is HIGHLY dependent on good data, and good data can be hard to come by. In the US, we don’t even have enough testing kits to have accurate “confirmed cases.”

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Also, the CFR changes by age group!

For those <50, the COVID19 CFR is 0.5%.

Older than 80? 14.8%. Clearly the elderly and those with other medical history will need the most help.

jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…

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Notably, we have a GLOBAL TOTAL of ~2800 deaths so far. This is remarkably similar to the DAILY global deaths from DIARRHEA.

DAILY diarrhea deaths ~= TOTAL #COVID19 deaths. So what’s the fuss about?

Spread & resources.

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This is where another metric known as R0 reigns.

R0 or “R-naught” (you could write astronaut as astro0) is the AVERAGE number of people an infected individual will infect while they have the virus.

The R0 for #COVID19 is approximately 2.28.

cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspecti…

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This is what has the healthcare world a bit spooked.

We know the VAST MAJORITY of #COVID19 cases will be mild (80+%). However, the remaining 20% will likely require more care than rest, ibuprofen + good nutrition.

This is where the problems begin.

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In the US, we have approximately 1 million hospital beds.

We have a population of about 300M.

Assuming everyone in a hospital now goes home (unlikely), COVID19 will overwhelm our healthcare system with ONLY 2% of our population sick.

aha.org/statistics/fas…

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2% of 300M is 5M. So, if 5M get #COVID19, 20% will have “non-mild” disease likely requiring hospital resources. That’s 1M people, and that’s EVERY AVAILABLE BED IN THE USA.

You can see why #COVID19 may quickly become an immense resource challenge.

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Slowing the spread here becomes the KEY determinant of how we perform over the coming months.

1. Stop touching your face. Especially eyes, mouth & nose.

2. Wash your hands. A lot. Soap & water. 20s.

3. Put masks on the sick. You yourself likely don’t need one.

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Our goal MUST be to make the spread SO SLOW that our healthcare system can tolerate the stress.

Things will likely be a little different if/when #COVID19 starts spreading.

Remember your humanity, remember those at highest risk, and remember, this too, shall pass.