Our model is back on, but it was already pricing in a big South Carolina win for Biden so it isn't much changed.
* "No majority" chances now up to 60%.
* Plurality chances are Sanders 64%, Biden 32%, others 4%
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
* "No majority" chances now up to 60%.
* Plurality chances are Sanders 64%, Biden 32%, others 4%
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
More:
* Biden is now the plurality favorite in all *Southern* Super Tuesday states (he already was in the model before tonight, but a slightly heavier favorite now).
* However, he projects to have delegate accumulation problems outside of the South, especially CA.
* Biden is now the plurality favorite in all *Southern* Super Tuesday states (he already was in the model before tonight, but a slightly heavier favorite now).
* However, he projects to have delegate accumulation problems outside of the South, especially CA.
My hunch is that the model is overestimating the performance of Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Warren on Super Tuesday and that these candidates will lose votes to Biden and Sanders (probably more to Biden than Sanders, but both).
That is, voters will behave more tactically than the model assumes and move toward the top 2 candidates, making "no majority" a bit less likely than it says. Unfortunately, there's not a lot of time for polling between now and Tuesday so tbh we may not know a ton until then.
As a final point, Sanders entered tonight 12 points ahead of Biden in our national poll average. It seems to be assuming something like that Sanders loses 2 points and Biden gains 3 as a result of SC, closing the gap to 7. But that still gives Bernie a lead to work with.
Again, though, the potential "Biden finally emerges as the clear moderate-lane alternative to Sanders" dynamic is a little too complicated for the model to grok. Usually by the time we get to SC, the field has already been winnowed more than this.
