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Yeah, those were fine. And Trafalgar (Biden +21) was close enough. Others need to take a deeper look. Polls have been completely fucking up the black vote in Democratic primaries in the South for *years*.
What happened with Obama in 2008, Clinton in 2016 and now Biden in SC in 2020 is that they won by *much* larger margins in the South than polls showed. But because the polls "called" the winner right, they didn't get a lot of shit for it, and never fixed the problems.
If you want to make polls better as a news consumer, you should give them grief when they're way off on the margin and not worry about the winner so much.

Biden +29 when the poll had Biden +4 is a HUGE fuck-up.

Sanders +1 when it showed Biden +4 is fine; within the MOE.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Model will likely be back up later today/tonight.

FWIW, we've been dealing with a few different things. Some boring coding stuff. Some challenges in only having incomplete results in many states. Also there's an issue re: Biden having considerably outperformed his polls on Tues.
Why is Biden outperforming his polls an issue? To simplify a bit, the demographic projections we use in states with little polling tend are mostly based on past results, now that we have results in many states. So there's a bit of a mismatch between results and polls.
We're now going to be reverting the results-based projections partway to the poll-based projections so they align better. This tends to slightly raise Bernie's projections and slightly lower Biden's. The forecast is still going to be very good for Biden though.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Strong disagree with this take
I think the *timing* of when Bloomberg blew up was somewhat random and had fairly big consequences for the race. But I don't think he showed much strength.
Bloomberg was polling at 9% until a brief period of wall-to-wall media attention, then surged for all of 2 weeks before encountering huge problems, then underperformed his polls by 5 points last night even in his diminished state, suggesting his #'s in polls weren't very solid.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Based on most indicators, Biden is the most popular candidate among working-class Democratic voters.
projects.economist.com/democratic-pri…
To be sure, Sanders does well among working-class voters too. But a lot of the arguments that were valid about Buttigieg or Beto or Klobuchar or Warren don't hold up against Biden. The whole reason Biden is a tough matchup for Sanders is because of his working-class support.
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Yeah I’ll debate Jesse Singhal on your podcast so long as I’m allowed to bring an airhorn
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Mona
@Monaheart1229
This is a good article, talking about problems that we have to, that the GOP won't and that we CAN fix! But first, just #Vote damnit!
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NastyWomenofNPS
@NastyWomenofNPS
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