I'm going on @AlArabiya with @Lara_bn at 1:30 pm today to talk about why Lebanon's potential oil and gas reserves are not a solution to the country's current economic crisis, and really quite irrelevant.
1/ Even under quite optimistic assumptions, the value of the potential o&g resource is just too small and will come too late to make a dent. On a PV basis (the value of all projected future tax revenue discounted to today) isn't enough to move the needle (ignore the $80 cases). 
2/ If we make a 20 tcf discovery (which is big), assuming today's gas prices and several very optimistic assumptions, the Govt's tax/royalty/profit sharing revenue from such a project is projected to be $1-1.5 bn/yr for the first ~10 years from the start of production.
** The figures above assume the tax regime/terms in the Blocks 4 & 9 Exploration and Production Agreements. The terms may be different in agreements for future blocks that are licensed.
3/ In terms of timing, we are about to drill the first exploration well in the first offshore block (Block 4). Before you drill wells, you can't be sure if/how much o&g you have. The volume may be too small or costly to develop. We may not find anything worthwhile in Block 4
4/ The exploration process could take a while. We have only licensed 2 of 10 blocks. Delays in the licensing of subsequent blocks indicates that interest in these blocks may be less than expected. It will take time to have a full picture of the size of our o&g reserves.
5/ Putting that aside, if we do make a discovery, that's when the real work starts. If the reservoir is too small, it won't warrant the investment needed to export it, so it would produce gas for domestic consumption only.
6/ Intl oil companies participate in these developments looking to export gas, that's where they earn their returns. It would be difficult to justify the large upfront investment in an o&g project whose sole buyer is a bankrupt Lebanese Govt.Who then will finance the development?
7/ Even for an export project, some gas will be consumed domestically. While some of our power plants can switch to use gas, we have to carry out significant power sector reforms & investment in new generation to fully benefit from domestic gas use. How will this be financed?
8/ If we do make a large discovery, then what? Let's focus on Block 4. Total (the Operator) will have to carry out Environment & Social Impact Studies & undertake Front End Engineering Design (the 6+ month engineering study to determine how the gas is to be developed)
9/ Onshore and offshore project sites will have to be identified with all of the social/environments/political challenges that entails. Total will then produce a comprehensive Development Plan that covers all aspects of the project for approval by the Cabinet of Ministers.
10/ Total will also solicit bids from construction companies to build the onshore and offshore facilities. At the same time, it will seek to market the gas. For projects like this, gas is sold under long-term contracts (10-20 years) because long-term financing requires that.
11/ A project like this could cost upwards of $5 bn (depending on size, much more) & the Rights Holders won't be financing it all themselves. They would seek bank financing for most of it (60-70%). Banks require there be long-term sales & purchase contracts to reduce market risk.
12/ The market is very oversupplied right now and for the coming several years. The number of projects under construction in the US, Mozambique, Qatar, Russia, Canada, Australia is massive. Today's gas prices and gas price forecasts indicate as much.
13/ The gas marketing could be very difficult for projects looking for buyers over the next years. It is likely that Lebanon's gas is not in the lower quartiles of price-competitiveness. It will be a challenge no doubt and could take more than a year to secure buyers, if at all.
14/ The financing will also be a challenge. Lebanon is a very weak credit, may be in default at the time, may have an IMF program. Even official sector lenders (like Export Credit Agencies) may find it difficult to lend into such a country, even if the gas is to be sold offshore.
15/ Arranging financing could take upwards of 1-2 years. I've been working on a financing for a similar project outside of Lebanon for 4 years. Problems come up and cause delays.
16/ When all that is sorted out, construction will start and could take 4-5+ years. It could be 8-10 years at best before we start exporting gas. Delays happen, it could push these dates out even further. The market isn't on our side, lots of projects are having difficulty.
17/ I've not even discussed all of the political and social and resource-curse implications which many others have explained. First we start solving our economic mess, implement political reforms, then maybe we can enjoy some benefits from whatever o&g resources we find.
18/ I've written about this topic in the past and elaborated in an article for the Dailystar.
