BREAKING: Coronavirus update--Italy, Iran, Germany, France, Spain and US have large jumps in new domestic transmissions. South Korea has second day of decline. (Today's attached map uses worldometers numbers)
China new cases are the best since the lockdown on Jan 23.
China new cases are the best since the lockdown on Jan 23.
Given what we know we recommend a two week lockdown of the area around Kirkland, WA. This would enable identifying many current cases, and stop transmission. Similar actions are needed in France, Germany and Spain. Acting early may prevent the need for larger actions.
Update: China just reported only 125 cases today. 114 in Hubei province, down from 195 yesterday. This additional dramatic drop shows the effectiveness of travel restrictions and lockdowns.
For 1.5x multiple per day (no intervention) in 30 days we will have 190,000X as many new cases as today = 4.6 million; If we reduce 20% we have 240 times = 6,000; If we reduce by 30% we have 100 cases; reduce by 40% we have 1 case; 50% we have none.
At least 7 out of today's 11 new cases outside Hubei are international travelers from Italy.
I did this too quickly (5 hrs sleep last night). Need to make the initial time interval a typical infection period. If assume 3 days, then we have 20% reduction is 28,000, 60% reduction is 500, 80% reduction is less than one.
Conclusion is the same: Reduce connectivity.
Conclusion is the same: Reduce connectivity.
Another situation (my neighborhood). Multiple cases from school trips to Italy. They sent those on the trip home, but the students were back at school last week. They should shut the school for two weeks. Everyone is afraid to over react, but we need to.
msn.com/en-us/news/us/…
msn.com/en-us/news/us/…
The students should be on 14 day self-quarantine to prevent the next round of transmission.
