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"After his initial failure to prevent the epidemic from exploding, [Public Health Director] Wilmer Krusen attempted to address the crisis, largely in vain."
smithsonianmag.com/history/philad…
"Lurking among the multitudes was an invisible peril known as influenza—and it loves crowds. Philadelphians were exposed en masse to a lethal contagion widely called 'Spanish Flu,'"
From January 23

"Wuhan mayor under pressure to resign over response to coronavirus outbreak...He is slammed for allowing Lunar New Year gathering of more than 40,000 people to go ahead on Sunday."
scmp.com/news/china/pol…
NYT: "Cities like St. Louis that reacted quickly — canceling parades and ballgames, shutting schools, transit systems and government offices, ordering the sick to stay home — ultimately had fewer deaths."
nytimes.com/2020/02/28/sun…
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
You run a company in SF. Will at least one person have coronavirus? Assume:

SF population: 884k
SF cases: 200
Company size: 1000
Doubling time: 7 days

If the company is similar to SF's population, the risk of having at least one case is ~20% this week, ~36% next, and so on.
Link below. Plug in your own numbers for (a) company size and (b) true number of undiagnosed cases in SF:
wolframalpha.com/input/?i=m+%3D…

CITATIONS
1) Doubling time every ~7.4 days
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
2) Formula for probability of one or more cases in a crowd
Why is one case bad?
It's contagious so other employees will likely get it.

Why is that likely?
Because of chokepoints like elevator buttons, door handles, restroom sinks.

Everyone touches these, including the infected, and virus can survive on surfaces. who.int/news-room/q-a-…
Read 4 tweets
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
Someone should make a list of all cancelled events. The organizers took a serious economic hit for the public good, and we should support them if they do a digital version.
Collision is going remote and has a possible model for the rest of the industry.
This is a great first cut! V2 should have higher information density and be sortable by date, location, and keyword. isitcanceledyet.com
Read 4 tweets
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
The virus crisis is happening because there is a critical deficit of quantitative reasoning in our media & political class.

Here, Brian Williams of MSNBC and Mara Gay of the NYT Editorial Board divide $500M into 327M to get...$1M?
If you can’t do division, if you think it’s a an “incredible way of putting it” and “true” that $500M/327M = $1M, then you won’t understand exponents, compounding, probabilities.

This goes for elected officials too, by the way. Very little STEM. realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/03/…
What I’ve realized over the last few weeks is that you can’t give media and political elites an intuition for math and science overnight.

Purely verbal people tend to discount any kind of exponential projection as unrealistic, *even if* shown data. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Read 9 tweets

Related threads

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Sara Danner Dukic
@saradannerdukic
I think a mistake that's being made - and something that Trump loves + is trained to play to - is thinking about the effects of a crisis such as coronavirus on a purely individual level.
Please know that I’m not an expert in medicine, but after taking thousands of people overseas over the years, I do know how to plan, and to think about the best ways to avoid problems before they happen.
Take or leave my thoughts, and if any of this is empirically wrong, please tell me so.
Read 33 tweets
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ᴸᵁᴸᵁ ᴸᴱ Wash Your Hands
@LuluLemew
2017 “An expert on the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic wrote a piece on lessons of why that outbreak was so deadly.

Govt officials, desperate to keep morale up during WWI, didn't tell the truth.

And because the govt lied, more people died.”
via @ianbassin
smithsonianmag.com/history/journa…
1918
Haskell County, Kansas

An influenza outbreak struck in January—so severe that, although influenza was not then a “reportable” disease, a local dr named Loring Miner went to the trouble of alerting the US Public Health Service.
The report itself no longer exists, but it stands as the first recorded notice anywhere in the world of unusual influenza activity in 1918.

The local newspaper, the Santa Fe Monitor, confirms something odd was happening around that time:
Read 90 tweets
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DocRock1007 🇺🇸
@DocRock1007
...to San Francisco. apnews.com/cc77e92054c495…
2. Roads in and out of #Wuhan (even small side roads) being barricaded with piles of dirt/rocks to block all traffic in or out.
3. "Ye shall not eat any thing with the blood: neither shall ye use enchantment, nor observe times. Ye shall not .. print any marks upon you: I am the LORD. Do not prostitute thy daughter, to cause her to be a whore; lest the land fall to whoredom"..."apnews.com/d59f43a911996a…
Read 169 tweets
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Sean M Joyce
@SeanMJoyce1
V.5. The Republicans have a proud history, Democrats not so much! To clean their hands, Democrat crony academia have altered perception of that history. A very long timeline thread with facts of both parties to dispel the myth of a party ideal switch. Citations/links in comments
March 20, 1854- The anti-slavery Whig and Free Soil parties merge to fight the western expansion of slavery. Alvan Bovay brings together voters of like minds in Ripon, Wisconsin and suggests the name. The popularity swells in the Midwest and soon throughout all of New England.
March 6, 1857, All 7 Democrats on the SCOTUS ruled against Dred Scott and his family, while both GOP judges dissented; ruling he was not a citizen and instead property who's not entitled to freedom regardless of being on free soil. This decision was the prelude to the Civil War.
Read 228 tweets
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Lola Netty
@TXTrumpette89
documentary has revealed how the roots of the Great War lay partly in the tangled web of Royal family relationships - in particular that of the British-hating Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany and his cousins, George V and Tsar Nicholas of Russia. dailymail.co.uk/femail/article…
The 'King, Kaiser, Tsar' who were cousins: It was three royal cousins – Georgie, Nicky, and Willy – who marched the world to World War I. csmonitor.com/2007/0724/p13s…
Best of enemies: Kaiser Wilhelm II (L) and King Edward VII loathed each other despite being nephew and uncle
Read 142 tweets
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Friend or Foe?
@starknightz
1. #News ~ ‘CRIME BOSS’: Closing Arguments in NXIVM Trial
— Satanism, Mexico Child Trafficking, Hillary, Schumer and Gillibrand Ties bigleaguepolitics.com/crime-boss-clo…

#Trump #Qanon #WWG1WGA @realDonaldTrump #ItsHAPPENING
#JusticeComing #SOON #TheStormIsUponUs #TickTock
2. #News ~ Benghazi Suspect Found Guilty of Terrorism in 2012 Attack on U.S. Compound; “We will never forget those we lost in Benghazi on 9/11, 2012 – Tyrone Woods, Sean Smith, Glen Doherty, & Ambassador Christopher Stevens,” breaking911.com/breaking-bengh…

#Trump #Qanon #Benghazi
3. #News ~ YAY!! President Trump is Planning to Live-tweet Democratic Debates

- THANK YOU SIR! I DIDN'T WANT TO HAVE WATCH FAKE NEWS!

@realDonaldtrump washingtonexaminer.com/news/trump-pla…

#Trump #Qanon #Trump2020
Read 139 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Trump #Wuhan #RightTime #ReleaseDeclass #Saudi #WINNING #News #US #Tucker #Washington #UnitedStates #Prayers #Justice #TVVNoticias #Boycott #Trump2024 #Treason #Constitution #Italy #regimechangeproject #Peace #WorseThanCOVID19 #Fight #EnemyOfThePeople #Bolton

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