You run a company in SF. Will at least one person have coronavirus? Assume:
SF population: 884k
SF cases: 200
Company size: 1000
Doubling time: 7 days
If the company is similar to SF's population, the risk of having at least one case is ~20% this week, ~36% next, and so on.
SF population: 884k
SF cases: 200
Company size: 1000
Doubling time: 7 days
If the company is similar to SF's population, the risk of having at least one case is ~20% this week, ~36% next, and so on.
Link below. Plug in your own numbers for (a) company size and (b) true number of undiagnosed cases in SF:
wolframalpha.com/input/?i=m+%3D…
CITATIONS
1) Doubling time every ~7.4 days
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
2) Formula for probability of one or more cases in a crowd
wolframalpha.com/input/?i=m+%3D…
CITATIONS
1) Doubling time every ~7.4 days
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
2) Formula for probability of one or more cases in a crowd
Why is one case bad?
It's contagious so other employees will likely get it.
Why is that likely?
Because of chokepoints like elevator buttons, door handles, restroom sinks.
Everyone touches these, including the infected, and virus can survive on surfaces. who.int/news-room/q-a-…
It's contagious so other employees will likely get it.
Why is that likely?
Because of chokepoints like elevator buttons, door handles, restroom sinks.
Everyone touches these, including the infected, and virus can survive on surfaces. who.int/news-room/q-a-…
Also, we've seen plenty of transmission in closed environments like:
- husband/wife in their home
- driver/passenger in a car
- passenger/passenger in cruise ships
People sitting next to each other in a corporate office would probably be similar.
- husband/wife in their home
- driver/passenger in a car
- passenger/passenger in cruise ships
People sitting next to each other in a corporate office would probably be similar.
