Thread by @saradannerdukic

I think a mistake that's being made - and something that Trump loves + is trained to play to - is thinking about the effects of a crisis such as coronavirus on a purely individual level.

Please know that I’m not an expert in medicine, but after taking thousands of people overseas over the years, I do know how to plan, and to think about the best ways to avoid problems before they happen.

Take or leave my thoughts, and if any of this is empirically wrong, please tell me so.

The mortality rate is a bit of a moving target as we await more data. Here they say around 2.5%
dw.com/en/coronavirus…

“Well, only 2.5% of people die from it. This means I’ll probably be fine.”

That is TRUE - the odds are that you probably WILL be fine.

The problem is what happens in the aggregate, ALL AT ONE TIME.

One estimate is that between 40-70% of the world’s population will contract this virus.

theatlantic.com/health/archive…

Let’s go with the middle, 55%.

Let’s say 55% of my metro area with a population of 2 million people falls ill.

That means 1,110,000 would all be sick, ALL AT ONE TIME.

Not everyone will need or seek medical care for it, but a lot will. It could means hundreds of thousands of people ALL AT ONE time visiting the ER or the doctor ON TOP of their already existing loads, just in my metro area.

Around 16% of those infected in China have gotten seriously ill.
who.int/docs/default-s…

Here, where I live, that could mean that 177,600 EXTRA people need specialized care and/or equipment ALL AT ONE TIME, ON TOP of their already existing loads of critically ill patients.

Keep in mind that of all those ill people, a good chunk of them will likely be healthcare workers, making the problem even worse.

Of that 16%, around 5% of them become critically ill.
who.int/docs/default-s…

Here, that would mean around 8800 people all in critical condition, all needing special care and equipment ALL AT ONE TIME.

Again, all this ON TOP of already existing patient loads.

In addition to unnecessary deaths, they (by “they,” I mean experts, people, and/or countries that are actually doing something proactive) are also trying to prevent:

-losing control over the situation: it’s easier to do something preemptively vs. reactively

(ie: close schools now and make provisions for learning via the internet vs. closing because everyone’s too sick to teach or learn)

-along these same lines 👆, uncontrolled/unplanned shut-down of services such as sanitation, mail, mobility - basically anything necessary to a well-functioning city

-not having enough workers (during something like this, if you’re sick, you SHOULD NOT be going to work) to perform vital services such as sanitation, clearing roads, law enforcement, healthcare, emergency services, or to grow package and distribute our food.

(did you know that during the Spanish flu, they ran out of workers to harvest crops?)

This is by no means exhaustive - but you get the idea.

And then there is of course the death rate. Imagine that 28,000 people die unexpectedly ALL AT THE SAME TIME (in larger areas, it could be worse).

During the Spanish flu, the American life expectancy took a nose dive by 12 years just because of that one event. Entire families were wiped out. Funeral homes and morgues where overwhelmed.
history.com/topics/world-w…

“the most important lesson from 1918 is to tell the truth. Though that idea is incorporated into every preparedness plan I know of, its actual implementation will depend on the character and leadership of the people in charge when a crisis erupts.”
smithsonianmag.com/history/journa…

Take care of yourselves, take care of each other, prepare, and listen to what actual experts have to say.
npr.org/sections/healt…

Realize that whatever happens, we will have to make sacrifices. We will have to think about people other than ourselves. If we end up being stuck inside for a while, think of it as a Netflix Victory Garden, your Patriotic Duty, Keep Calm and Trail Mix On. That sort of thing.

AND WASH YOUR HANDS

This is fair, but even if the numbers I described above were half what they are at any given time, the consequences would still be devastating, even more so if it's happening over a sustained amount of time.

https://twitter.com/peteli66/status/1233855129545269253?s=20

Consider also that more densely populated areas will probably have a harder time.

https://twitter.com/saradannerdukic/status/1233875648353120258?s=20

“About 25% of them have very serious disease, requiring relatively intensive or really intensive care," said the director of the NIH's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc…

Keep in mind that China has brought medical personnel in from other areas of the country to work on this problem in a concentrated geographical area. It is taking a toll. google.com/amp/s/www.lati…

My main point: yes, they’re trying to prevent deaths, but they are also trying to prevent the knock-on effects of millions of people being sick at the same time, within a system that is not designed to handle it—whether medical, schools, sanitation, banking....everything.

I hesitated writing any of this, because it can be alarming. But I think it’s important to: 1. Not panic 2. Plan 3. Understand there is a reason behind measures we see in China and elsewhere 4. Be willing to participate in these measures and 5. Know we’re all in this together.