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NEW: My story on how Elizabeth Warren wound up as the candidate of (mostly) white, college-educated elites:

•In IA, she won only the most educated county
•In NH, she ~tied Tulsi among non-college
•In NV, post-grads & Twitter users were best demos

nytimes.com/2020/03/03/us/…
What was really interesting in reporting this story is how both Warren's allies AND her rivals have been surprised at how little traction Warren's truly compelling personal story has had.

Voters just don't know about her up-from-bootstraps OK days.
nytimes.com/2020/03/03/us/…
The thing is, Warren does talk about her story at her events. Her stump is built around it.

But there is a *huge* delta between that and what voters actually know about her, or think they know about her.

One reason: Oklahoma stuff was absent most ads. nytimes.com/2020/03/03/us/…
"I've got a plan for that" became the Warren narrative.

It delighted policy professionals, academics, activists and 2019 MSNBC watchers.

“It’s both what got her to where she is but maybe prevented her from reaching beyond that,” Joe Trippi told me.
nytimes.com/2020/03/03/us/…
Veterans of Bill Clinton's campaign look at Warren's bio and see parallels to Bill's — only better

“What too many voters see,” Paul Begala said of Warren's 2020 image, “is Professor Warren from Harvard Law and not Betsy from Norman, Oklahoma.”
nytimes.com/2020/03/03/us/…
One interesting bit not in the piece: One Bill Clinton image-maker, Mandy Grunwald, used to be on Warren's team. She is not for 2020, though.

Here's a bio spot Warren ran in '12 — details ("married at 19") not aired this race.

nytimes.com/2020/03/03/us/…
About two weeks ago, btw, Warren campaign posted a video on YouTube about "Where Warren comes from,"

It has only about 5,000 views.


nytimes.com/2020/03/03/us/…
The base Warren built in 2019 — college-educated whites — is an enviable one in Dem politics. She hit 38% among them last October!

Then Pete Buttigieg came along, and later Amy Klobuchar.

Their exits could help lift Warren today where she is/was ~15%.
nytimes.com/2020/03/03/us/…
Warren's ads, meanwhile, often reinforced her wonkish "plans" image nytimes.com/2020/03/03/us/…
Then there is the gender factor in appealing to non-college voters while running to be the first female president

nytimes.com/2020/03/03/us/…
Anyway, please read and consider as you look at what states and congressional districts Warren performs best in on Super Tuesday nytimes.com/2020/03/03/us/…
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More from @ShaneGoldmacher see all

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Shane Goldmacher
@ShaneGoldmacher
NEWS w/ @AsteadWesley: A new Warren memo outlines her rivals’ flaws and her path to Super Tuesday and beyond

Lots of details, delegate projections and new swipes at opponents nytimes.com/2020/02/11/us/…
@AsteadWesley The memo, going out to supporters this afternoon, runs nearly 2,000 words.

It foresees a “three-way race” with Biden and Sanders — even as Buttigieg topped her in IA and looks likely to again in NH.
nytimes.com/2020/02/11/us/…
@AsteadWesley NEW: Warren memo projects delegate thresholds in all 165 Super Tuesday congressional seats. Here is who they see above 15% threshold, by CD:

Sanders 98% of CDs
Biden: 96%
Warren: 65%
Bloomberg: 15%
Buttigieg: 6%
Klobuchar: 5% (only MN)

w/ @AsteadWesley
nytimes.com/2020/02/11/us/…
Read 6 tweets
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Shane Goldmacher
@ShaneGoldmacher
NEW: Joe Biden has quietly redirected TV money out of NH and SC and into Iowa in recent weeks.

A SC win would be late for an influx of small money to help much on Super Tuesday.

My story on how the biggest stakes in Iowa for Biden might just be cash...
nytimes.com/2020/01/30/us/…
The Biden campaign/super PAC will have spent nearly $9 million in Iowa by the caucuses — and virtually nothing by then in NH NV SC combined.

The spending tells you the state's significance.

(Biden still being outspent in IA by Sanders/Buttigieg/Steyer)
nytimes.com/2020/01/30/us/…
I don't think most observers have properly priced into their political thinking — in terms of cash-on-hand — how far behind Joe Biden might be to Bernie Sanders on tomorrow's FEC reports nytimes.com/2020/01/30/us/…
Read 3 tweets
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Shane Goldmacher
@ShaneGoldmacher
NEWS: In a shift, Elizabeth Warren now says she will NOT do big-money fundraising events if she's the Democratic nominee.

She had previously said her ban only applied to primary.
nytimes.com/2019/10/09/us/…
She made comment to @cbszak in the same interview he asked about her losing her job while pregnant. CBS posted the full interview last night here:

Relevant part near 7-minute mark: cbsnews.com/video/elizabet…

nytimes.com/2019/10/09/us/…
@cbszak Warren on facing Trump: "I’m not going to do the big-dollar fund-raisers. I’m just not going to do it"
nytimes.com/2019/10/09/us/…
Read 11 tweets

Related threads

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Jared Yates Sexton
@JYSexton
Elizabeth Warren is still a viable candidate for the Democratic nomination and you’d think she’d been exiled from the country.
What’s amazing here is that even making a mention of the media coverage of a candidate is somehow taken as an endorsement in this environment. If you’re not puzzled by the media’s treatment of this primary you’re not paying attention.
This is going to be analyzed and parsed over for decades for how media narratives influenced this primary. It’s been just bizarre and really alarming from an observer studying the relationship between reality and media narratives.
Read 4 tweets
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Alex Seitz-Wald
@aseitzwald
NEW: Elizabeth Warren opens up in intvw with me about the surreality of running for president and her conversations with former candidates -- some of the only people who get it, w/@alivitali.

"Running for president can be thrilling but also very lonely."

nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
@alivitali Elizabeth Warren has called "close to 100 percent" of the candidates who dropped out to talk policy, but it also sometimes gets more personal.

"Kamala and Kirsten, in particular, ask me am I getting rest? Am I eating? And am I having some fun out there?"

nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
@alivitali It's part of Warren's effort to argue she's the candidate who can unite all the factions of the Democratic Party, melding together from the coalitions and policies of "Cory" and "Julian" and "Kamala" as she often mentions on the stump.
Read 4 tweets
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Persist Until #PresidentWarren
@DrKC4
@darylsturgis @therealzanetta 1/ #Warren is the smartest, the toughest, and the most likely to beat Trump. She is the world’s leading expert on medical bankruptcy so she understands both the economy and the health care system. Watch her in hearings; she can eviscerate Trump.
@darylsturgis @therealzanetta 2/ She understands people. She knows what its like to almost lose a parent and to almost lose a house. She understands what it’s like for a woman to hear a man say “she just misunderstood my joke.” She’s been a single mom and a champion debater.
@darylsturgis @therealzanetta 3/ She dropped out of school to get married, as so many women did, and she came back to become a great professor and Senator. Her life is her resume—and while there are a few books about her life, she has also written a dozen that weren’t about her at all.
Read 14 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW from me: What would happen if the Democrats instituted a national primary using ranked-choice voting? I got the data from @YouGovUS and crunched the numbers:

economist.com/graphic-detail…
@YouGovUS We had YouGov ask over 2,000 Democratic voters to rank all the 2020 candidates over the past month. We used those responses to simulate ranked-choice voting in the primary.

How does RCV work, you ask? Just a reminder....
@YouGovUS 0. Count up all the ballots
1. Did someone win a majority of the vote? If yes, they win. If not....
2. Anyone who listed the last-place candidate gets their votes redistributed to their next-ranked option.
3. Re-tally the votes and repeat 1-2 until someone gets a majority.
Read 10 tweets
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Brian from Pennsylvania🌹
@AmericasCousin
Elizabeth #Warren has just proven she cannot unify the Democratic party.

For those not aware, she attacked Senator #Sanders directly today by reviving smears from the 2016 primary and recast herself in the performative victim role of Hillary Clinton that we all found so

(1/16)
very endearing. This is the first time either Warren or Sanders attacked each other directly and given the desperation one might expect with her declining numbers, it was Warren who launched the grenade. She used an unverified and heavily disputed report of a lower level
(2/16)
volunteer canvassing script that distinguished her GE electoral coalition as "affluent and highly educated" to claim that Bernie was sending volunteers to "trash" her. Quite a stretch. She then launched into a nervously delivered pathetic 2-minute long monologue
(3/16)
Read 18 tweets
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MJ Lee
@mj_lee
New from me: Inside the network of foreign policy veterans quietly advising Elizabeth Warren's campaign.

How a candidate focused on domestic challenges and the economy is confronting a national security test.
cnn.com/2020/01/10/pol…
The advisers working w/ Warren's foreign policy team, led by Sasha Baker, includes @JarrettBlanc, @ilangoldenberg @LorenRaeDeJ Robert Ford, Dave Rank and others.

I spoke with them about what they see as the "Warren Doctrine" cnn.com/2020/01/10/pol…
@JarrettBlanc @ilangoldenberg @LorenRaeDeJ The back stories of why some of these foreign policy veterans chose to get behind Warren shed interesting light on Warren's own foreign policy vision.

Dave Rank, who famously resigned from State Department after Trump pulled out from Paris climate deal, told me this:
Read 4 tweets

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