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This is the right move.
Also, I predict the economic impact of coronavirus is going to be way way WAY bigger than the markets have priced in. I say that knowing the extent of the market rout last week.
Why? Because schools are closed. Which means: kids need to be cared for...
Which means a parent or caregiver will need to be home to care for said kids...some parents/caregivers will be able to work from home. Many won’t.
This means businesses will be down employees. This means the parents/caregivers who don’t have paid time off/paid sick leave won’t
be getting paid for the time they are away from work caring for their kids.
Which means less household income.
Which means less household spending.
Which means...you get the picture, right?
The human health toll matters the most.
But the economic impact will, ultimately, have...
a human impact too.
People who can’t afford to go without a paycheck but are forced to because someone needs to stay home with the kids during school closures, could risk food and housing insecurity.
Obviously, containment of the virus must be the priority.
But negative...
economic impact is a foreseeable consequence of school and business closures. We are going to need emergency unemployment benefits to help people impacted by the externalities of containment.
Continuing on this thread, the economic impact will ripple through other sectors. Sure, Costco is sold out of hand sanitizer and wipes and bottled water and spam. So we’ll see some slight increased economic activity from people prepping.
Online shopping will increase. Streaming
and gaming subscriptions will increase. But I expect we’ll also see major decreases in things like movie ticket sales at theaters, amusement park ticket sales, airline ticket purchases, dining out, business conference bookings, weekend getaway bookings, etc. Malls, already...
kinda dying, will not be highly sought out destinations over the next few weeks.
So, prepare for an economic slowdown. And likely more market corrections, no matter what the Fed does to try to prop up the house of cards.
Remember: Health > wealth but I’m trained in economics,
so that’s the field I expound upon.
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