Thread by @folcmar

1/ Some sources on basic reproduction number (R0) of #COVID19:
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control : "...one infected person will infect between two and three more..."
ecdc.europa.eu/en/novel-coron…

2/ "With R0 values for COVID-19 in China around 2·5 in the early stages of the epidemic, we calculate that approximately 60% of the population would become infected. This is a very worst-case scenario for a number of reasons."
thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lanc…

3/ "WHO's estimated (on Jan. 23) Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5. [13]
Other studies have estimated a Ro between 3.6 and 4.0, and between 2.24 to 3.58. [23].
Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5. [5][6][7]"
worldometers.info/coronavirus/#r…

4/ Bloomberg: R0 is 2.8 according to World Health Organization, Centers for Disease Control, King Saud University, Nature
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

5/ "A handful of studies modeling the COVID-19 outbreak have given a similar value with a range between 1.4 and 3.8. ... It seems to have settled on a figure around 2.2"
cnet.com/how-to/coronav…

6/ "A comparative analysis of 12 studies published by 7 February 2020 concludes that the baseline reproduction number is higher than previously assumed by the WHO, whose estimate is 1.4 to 2.5. [45] ... averages 3.28, with a median of 2.79. [59]
de.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-…

7/ So I will use a R0 of 2.5 for my extrapolations, meaning herd immunity is achieved at 60% of population being infected.