I completely understand the sentiment. Though Contagion in 2011 kind of nailed this, so Gates and the pandemic people did see this coming.
I think in retrospect we will see SARS, MERS, H1N1 as precursors to the virus, like the 1993 WTC bombing & USS Cole attacks prefigured 9/11.
I think in retrospect we will see SARS, MERS, H1N1 as precursors to the virus, like the 1993 WTC bombing & USS Cole attacks prefigured 9/11.
Perhaps before every black swan there is a black cygnet, a baby swan that gives a preview of the big one.
Other examples of this:
1) SF earthquakes giving a preview of “The Big One”
2) Microsoft Tay giving a preview of hostile AI
3) Bear Stearns giving a preview of Lehman Brothers (this was arguably more than a black cygnet, but life did go on)
It’s an interesting framework.
1) SF earthquakes giving a preview of “The Big One”
2) Microsoft Tay giving a preview of hostile AI
3) Bear Stearns giving a preview of Lehman Brothers (this was arguably more than a black cygnet, but life did go on)
It’s an interesting framework.
Here’s the scene from Contagion showing how the virus arose.
Bat to pig to meat market to handshake without washing hands.
Bat to pig to meat market to handshake without washing hands.
