A few thoughts after hearing Trump: at this point, we are past containment. Containment is basically futile. Containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US.
Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak.
Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak.
Social distancing is critical now to "flatten the curve", to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers. And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be developed.
How many in the community already have the virus? No one knows.
We are in mitigation now.
How many in the community already have the virus? No one knows.
We are in mitigation now.
We are currently where at where Italy was a week ago. 40-70% of US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level we will start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
Mortality is deceiving. Assume 50% of US population infected, that’s 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans dying over the next 12-18 months. Death rate varies hugely by age. Over age 80 mortality could be 10-15%.
I conclude with four things I am certain now: 1. it’s going to get worse before it gets better; 2. we'll be dealing with this for the next year at least; 3. Our lives are going to look different for the next year; 4. This too will be over.
