What are the temperature outcomes from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) when including uncertainty in the climate system?
The figure shows the median with 5-95 percentiles. In 2100:
* SSP1-19: 1.3 (0.8-2.1)°C
* SSP2-45: 2.6 (1.7-4.1)°C
* SSP5-85: 5.3 (3.6-8.8)°C
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The figure shows the median with 5-95 percentiles. In 2100:
* SSP1-19: 1.3 (0.8-2.1)°C
* SSP2-45: 2.6 (1.7-4.1)°C
* SSP5-85: 5.3 (3.6-8.8)°C
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The #SR15 database included results for two reduced complexity models (MAGICC, FAIR).
FAIR has a much lower observationally constrained climate response, & considerably smaller uncertainty.
In 2100 for SSP1-19 (<1.5°C):
* FAIR: 1.1 (0.8-1.5)°C
* MAGICC: 1.3 (0.8-2.1)°C
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FAIR has a much lower observationally constrained climate response, & considerably smaller uncertainty.
In 2100 for SSP1-19 (<1.5°C):
* FAIR: 1.1 (0.8-1.5)°C
* MAGICC: 1.3 (0.8-2.1)°C
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In 2100 for SSP1-26 (~66% below 2°C):
* FAIR: 1.4 (1.1-2)°C
* MAGICC: 1.7 (1.1-2.7)°C
Data is from the SR15 database, data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-expl…, but I plotted only selected SSP marker scenarios (used in CMIP6).
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* FAIR: 1.4 (1.1-2)°C
* MAGICC: 1.7 (1.1-2.7)°C
Data is from the SR15 database, data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-expl…, but I plotted only selected SSP marker scenarios (used in CMIP6).
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