Thread by @patrickhopkins

1/ Since I have so many new followers as I'm #LiveTweetingthePandemic, I thought I'd go over where things stand in Italy and how we got here.

I think it will give you a good roadmap of what to expect in your near future.

2/ Over the course of just a few weeks the Italian govt has gradually put in place measures to reduce contact between people. Why gradually? Because people and govts want to maintain the status quo and this thing is so different that they can't comprehend that it requires...

3/ a different kind of response. It seems like an overreaction.

So it starts with a few areas being quarantined or contained (Red Zones). The creation of Yellow Zones where kids stay home from school but everything else is normal.

Next comes the expansion of the Red Zones...

4/ to other areas, but not the whole state or country.

Then comes the expansion of the Red Zone to the whole country. But it's not a full lockdown because businesses are still operating but people are being more careful.

5/ Then comes Lockdown 2.0 (which is more or less where Italy is today) where some stores have been shut down but not all (I'll tweet details later).

I suspect that this will be followed by Lockdown 3.0 and possibly more.

Why? To be honest it would be best to do Lockdown 3.0...

6/ or 4.0 immediately but as people and govts we're all so used to the status quo and in denial that it gets put off as long as possible.

But all countries will get there sooner or later.

7/ This will happen to you in the next 1-3 weeks. You need to accept that and start getting ready now.

You'll be spending more time at home. The kids will be home from school, maybe for a month or more. Some stores may be closed. Elderly need to be protected.

8/ You need to repress that instinct in you that says "I'm overreacting" or "only nuts with tin foil hats do this". A pandemic is not normal life. There are new rules.

Don't freak out, adjust. And the govt WILL adjust as well, slowly but surely. In the meantime prepare. /end