THREAD
1/ I read this @AdamJKucharski #COVID19 modeling piece in @TheLancet w/ great interest.
This paper examines a trend in the reproduction number Rt across a time point when travel restrictions were imposed in Wuhan.
Rt went from 2.35 to 1.05.
thelancet.com/action/showPdf…
1/ I read this @AdamJKucharski #COVID19 modeling piece in @TheLancet w/ great interest.
This paper examines a trend in the reproduction number Rt across a time point when travel restrictions were imposed in Wuhan.
Rt went from 2.35 to 1.05.
thelancet.com/action/showPdf…
2/
The reproduction number is the average number of new cases a single case creates (If Rt 2.35-->1 case leads to 2.35 new cases, for example).
The team used multiple data sources, including international travelers leaving Wuhan.
The reproduction number is the average number of new cases a single case creates (If Rt 2.35-->1 case leads to 2.35 new cases, for example).
The team used multiple data sources, including international travelers leaving Wuhan.
3/
Red line is when travel restrictions were introduced.
Remember, these results do NOT = causation.
Rt was already declining prior to travel restrictions, so likely other interventions mattered too.
The 95% CI for Rt before/after travel restrictions also overlap.
Red line is when travel restrictions were introduced.
Remember, these results do NOT = causation.
Rt was already declining prior to travel restrictions, so likely other interventions mattered too.
The 95% CI for Rt before/after travel restrictions also overlap.
4/
They also found that a single case had 17-25% chance of starting a larger outbreak.
But 4+ cases suggest a >50% chance of doing so.
This is all the more argument for rapid case detection, which requires adequate testing capacity but also strong surveillance systems.
They also found that a single case had 17-25% chance of starting a larger outbreak.
But 4+ cases suggest a >50% chance of doing so.
This is all the more argument for rapid case detection, which requires adequate testing capacity but also strong surveillance systems.
5/
A commentary in @TheLancetInfDis accompanies the article and is worth reading as well.
#COVID19
thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
A commentary in @TheLancetInfDis accompanies the article and is worth reading as well.
#COVID19
thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
