Thread by @AbraarKaran

1/ Decided to test the @nytimes #COVID19 model on what happens if we take social distancing seriously, today.

1st video shows the decrease of peak infections/total deaths.

With aggressive social distancing, peak from 9m to 513k; deaths from 982k to 51k

nytimes.com/interactive/20…

2/ Second video shows what happens the longer we delay #socialdistancing measures, even if we were doing an aggressive social distancing approach.

Deaths increase from 51k to 706k if we delayed implementing social distancing for a few months. Peak goes back up to over 9m cases.

3/ Third video shows how spreading the case load relates to ICU bed capacity, which here is estimated at 95k for the country.

With social distancing, your peak ICU caseload decreases from 366k to 261k.

That is by spreading out 100m total infections from 18 weeks to 18 months.

4/ As always, caveats. This is a very early model; I did not participate in developing this model in any way.

But the general public health science remains the same: earlier social distancing measures will likely reduce peak cases/ total deaths/ ICU demands.

cc @NickKristof

Cc @stuartathompson meant to tag you as well. Thanks for making this. Absolute numbers aside, it helps people visually understand the potential of #SocialDistancingNow @nytopinion