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Thread on hospital capacity (data drop):

Over the past week, the awesome team at @harvardgh has been working evenings and weekends with our friends at @propublica and @nytimes

See data and stories here:

nytimes.com/interactive/20…

projects.propublica.org/graphics/covid…
We built models of how much hospital, ICU capacity there will be under different scenarios of the infection over different time periods.

We used @mlipsitch analyses to estimate infection rates and plotted out different timelines (based on degree of social distancing)

.
We looked nationally, and within each community within the US (because communities have different levels of capacity, different populations)
What did we find? We have a HUGE challenge ahead.

Nationally, if we empty 50% of our currently occupied beds (!!),

We would need 3x to 5X more beds than we would have to care for patients. Some markets would be much more badly hit than others.

No market would be spared.
So what do we do?

Get serious about creating capacity.

1. Postpone elective surgeries
2. Think about how people can do different jobs
3. Think about where you can add additional beds
4. Focus on getting more PPEs
5. Prioritize keeping HC workers safe
We have more recommendations in this @Health_Affairs blog written by the one and only @Thomasctsai and Ben Jacobsen (not on twitter!!)
HUGE HUGE thanks to amazing folks including @Stefanie2000 who drove it from our side.

@jzheng828 who ran the numbers

Ben Jacobsen and @Thomasctsai for the late nights.

Great partners including @charlesornstein @sangerkatz and @AnnieWaldman and so so many other amazing folks!!
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Keep Current with Ashish "We need PPEs to protect docs & nurses" Jha

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More from @ashishkjha see all

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Ashish K. Jha
@ashishkjha
Thread:

New piece up on the @Health_Affairs blog about the U.S. response to #nCoV2019.

Yes, this is primarily a disease affecting China -- but it has become global and ensure an effective U.S. response is critical.

3 key takeaways:

healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hbl…
1st: Domestic Response

Outbreak here is small. Our public health agencies and our hospitals are superb. They will handle it as long as outbreak remains contained

But as @RonaldKlain and others have said, we need a PhEMA & a meaningful emergency fund to tap it if it gets big
3/5
Global leadership: uh...not so strong. @SecAzar has been great. But Trump administration dismantled the White House biosecurity team. This is deeply worrisome

Once again folks: walls won't save us

We need deep engagement with the global community and more $. No short cuts
Read 5 tweets
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Ashish K. Jha
@ashishkjha
Thread:

There's lots of evidence of discrimination against international medical graduates -- that they are supposedly not as good as US medical grads.

But is it true? Are IMGs not as good as US MGs?
2 of 5

In 2017, we (@ytsugawa1 @AnupamBJena others) examined this for hospitalists. What did we find?

That IMGs actually had BETTER outcomes than those of US medical grads. See @bmj_latest paper

bmj.com/content/356/bm…
3 of 5

Now we publish our findings for surgeons. We know that many IMG surgeons face discrimination. But what's the data?

Indeed, IMG surgeons are just as good as USMGs. Period.

Adj mortality rates IMGs to USMGs (7.3% vs 7.3%).

journals.lww.com/annalsofsurger…
Read 5 tweets
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Ashish K. Jha
@ashishkjha
Thread

1/9 Our @bmj_latest paper on the state of the UK National Health Service is out. We examined @NHSuk performance compared to other countries on 79 metrics.

What did we find?

bmj.com/content/367/bm…
2/9 The UK NHS spends less on healthcare than any comparator country – and has been growing more slowly –

And the fiscal austerity is starting to show.

But first, the good news from our data on the NHS.
3/9 Everyone’s covered (we knew this)

People perceive reasonably good access --- very few felt unmet needs due to costs.

That’s a good thing!

But access times are starting to get a bit stretched – longer wait times for specialists
Read 11 tweets

Related threads

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Dr Nigel Clarke
@DrNigelClarkeJa
#Thread The severe disruption caused by Covid 19 globally has escalated daily over the past week, and resulted in increasingly stringent measures to safeguard populations around the world including the Jamaican population.
The Covid crisis will certainly have adverse economic implications for the world and for Jamaica.

The good news, however, is the the Government of Jamaica is providing a $25 billion stimulus, the largest stimulus in Jamaica’s history that could not come at a better time.
Pumping $25 billion into the economy at a time of uncertainty like this helps to support economic activity in Jamaica.

The reduction in GCT by 1.5% from 16.5% to 15% puts $14 billion back into the hands of consumers and supports consumption.
Read 18 tweets
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Left Coast Right Watch
@LCRWnews
#THREAD The #LobbyDay militia rally tomorrow in Richmond already had one planned terrorist attack foiled and is awash in disinfo.

It's a little late to do so, but here's my preview thread for what's going on.
What the hell *is* this event that might pop off tomorrow? Here's the tl;dr from @IwriteOK's newest article for @bellingcat, which I'll be discussing and linking to later in this thread.
The broad right wing militia/patriot movement, particularly in the United States, is the conjoined twin brother of the white nationalist movement. That doesn't mean they have the same ideas about race. This article provides some important background. itsgoingdown.org/ammon-bundy-th…
Read 22 tweets
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Kavita Krishnan
@kavita_krishnan
#Thread on visit to #Muzaffarnagar, UP with @harsh_mander @natashabadhwar @JohnDayal @Sandeep_Saurav_ & many others.
In short: @UPPolice, PAC, RAF are the "rioters" - दंगाई - here, targeting & trashing Muslim homes (see video). Will try & post videos/pics as Internet allows
RAF was also involved in this destruction of Muslim homes singled out for being prosperous. One left his blue cap behind. Police, PAC, RAF doing this said, "Muslims will be thrown out of India, don't damage the floor or walls, after all, all this will one day belong to us"
Look at these images. Not a single plate or cup or shelf has been left whole. Each & every thing has been broken, under pretext of a "flag march" by PAC, RAF, police. In this home, there was only a woman with 3 children at night when the forces stormed in & trashed it.
Read 22 tweets
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Brian Castner
@Brian_Castner
Over the last week, protesters in Baghdad have died with some absolutely gruesome injuries. Every doc we talked to said it's trauma like they've never seen.

Here's a #thread about the new grenades being used, and why they are so deadly. amnesty.org/en/latest/news…
Listen, there are videos out there of these horrific injuries at the moment of impact. Do yourself a favor and don't watch them - your sleep will thank you. The CT scans from hospital afterward are bad enough, as you can see.
Why such awful trauma? Less-lethal weapons can always kill when used incorrectly, and police should never fire grenades directly at people. But this is a new level of damage. Not only are Iraqi security forces firing at point blank range, they are using a heavier kind of grenade.
Read 11 tweets
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Mark Dreyfus
@markdreyfusQCMP
A lot has happened over the past week - you may have missed a big government backdown over Family Court laws. Here's what you need to know. #thread (1/6) theaustralian.com.au/nation/politic…
This policy was flawed from the very beginning - it was rolled out with zero consultation with those most closely involved in the day to day workings of the Family Court, including the families themselves. It would have destroyed the family law system. (2/6)
Thankfully @cporterwa abandoned his plans this week. But the uncertainty has done lasting damage to the Family Court. And the shocking thing is Porter is refusing to give the Family Court additional resources because he did not get his way with the bill. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
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Matthew Willemsen
@mwill_crypto
0/ Can you believe we're already 10% through the year!? When you consider all that's transpired in the #crypto/#blockchain so far in 2019, that fact becomes less surprising.

Below, a 17-part thread based on what went down over the past day or so. Helping you stay informed!
1/ 🤝 @AirSwap's [ $AST ] @Crypto_Bobby announced the team's newfound "ability to support fiat on-ramp directly on AirSwap through [their] integration with" @SendWyre.

Fiat<-->#Crypto within users' self-custodied wallet, all whilst using #AirSwap's trading interface!
2/ 🐟 @Ethereum Foundation grantee @LeapDAO - a decentralized adaptive organization delivering layer-two Ethereum scalability as a global public utility - revealed its first public deployment of a Plasma Network! leapdao.org/blog/Plasma-Te…
Read 18 tweets

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