Thread by @_richardblack

It's the morning for a Twitter thread on #COP26, specifically the notion that it could be delayed or held virtually @PickardJE @ChrisGiles_ @CamillaHodgson @etaKatetaKate

Of course #COVID2019 might force a COP26 postponement. But in the context of comments coming from within UK Government, important to note the decision isn't in the UK's gift

The UN climate process is owned by all UN member states through the @UNFCCC - they would make a decision to delay the COP or change how it's run, not the UK

The UK is free at any time to say it can't host the summit - then the collective decision would be, to delay, go virtual, or see if another country wants to host. As happened when Chile pulled out last year and Spain stepped in

#COVID2019 is impossible to forecast with confidence. It's possible, if looking unlikely at the minute, that a nation that's controlled it more effectively (eg Singapore, South Korea) would put its hand up and make an offer if the UK pulled out

Another point. Many other big international gatherings are due well before November. @CHOGM2020 in June, for example - organisers seem to expect that's going ahead

https://twitter.com/CHOGM2020/status/1238388594391293954

- UNGA in September. Logically they would be cancelled/posponed before #COP26

China is due to hold the UN Convention on Biological Diversity summit in October. Many synergies between the 'sister conventions'. Logically a joint decision on postponement would be sensible

Another factor: The #ParisAgreement contains commitments to deliver key components "by 2020", not "by COP26". These cover enhancing NDCs (the 2030 cation-cutting pledges), long-term strategies (decarbonisation to 2050 plans) and the $100bn per year finance first promised in 2009

I'm no lawyer but my understanding is these could only be extended by consent of all @unfccc member states. Therefore Chile and UK might be expected to deliver these this year, irrespective of #COP26 timing. Not sure if UK officials considered this before briefing reporters

Could it be done remotely? No chance. @UNFCCC has been holding smaller prep meetings remotely - not a success. Too many timezones, poor internet access. A COP has nearly 200 delegations and depends on many side-room conversations, scrutiny by civil society, scientific advice, etc

So - yes, #COP26 might end up being postponed. But not just yet. And it's not the UK government's decision. And ministers may still have to deliver diplomatically this year, whatever the decision

Much will depend on how the myriad preparatory meetings go. As with all else #COVID2019 related, the only reliable forecast at this point is... uncertainty to persist