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Manu Kumar

@ManuKumar

, 12 tweets, 4 min read

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It’s all about math, and the thing with math is that you can cheat the numbers. Read this post and start Social Distancing ASAP.

#coronavirus #COVID19

“The Sober Math Everyone Must Understand about the Pandemic” by Jason S Warner
link.medium.com/qk6KW0DpX4

The fundamental problem with people not understanding why #SocialDistancing is so critical is related to people not understanding how exponentials work. Most people don’t even know what the word ‘exponential’ means. So here is a challenge for you:

Take a paper. Any size. It can be a full sheet newspaper, a letter-sized paper, anything. Now fold it in half 10 times. Can you do it? I bet you can’t. Because it is mathematically impossible to do. If you don’t believe me, try it. Seriously, try it.

This is how exponentials work. If you double anything (even the smallest number) multiple times you get really big numbers very quickly (exponential growth). It is a difficult concept for most people to grok.

#coronavirus #COVID19 is exponential. Because the virus is contagious before people have any symptoms. The number of infections double every 3 days. That means doubles 10 times in a month. Now, get back to folding that paper in half 10 times.

If we let it continue that way, then we end up with a global catastrophic situation with millions of not tens of millions dead. And many many more who will be sick and suffer.

China as an authoritative regime that can take drastic measures. But once we hit critical mass (using the phrase from a nuclear reaction intentionally) in places like India and Africa, the death rates will be off the charts. An unmitigated #GlobalCatastrophe.

This is not going to pass anytime soon. This is a new reality. It is probably going to take time (at least several months, if not years). That is difficult to understand and accept.

The only thing we can do is to #StayTheFHome. Isolate your family unit from physical contact from other human beings. That doesn’t mean you can’t connect—you can, but on the phone, on video, but not IRL (in real life), not in person.

It probably feels silly to some people, but remember you cannot fool math. 2+2 is always 4. Or in this case... 2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2 (2^10) is 1024. And no matter what you do, you can’t make that 10th fold of the paper in half because you’re folding 512 sheets at once.

#RespectTheMath or you or someone you care about may feel the consequences of not understanding it.

Do what you can to help #FlattenTheCurve.