Here follows a thread that's a summary of my thinking. Open workings if you like.
I do however have some core questions about the UK Government's approach, and whether it actually fails on its own terms, and that's what I'll examine.
- that you can separate low risk from high risk groups
- if you were infected with it, reinfection will not re-occur
- that there are no ill effects of getting it and recovering from it
There is a daily % increase in the number of reported #COVIDー19 cases
That daily % increase should reduce once social distancing measures are imposed (I take today as that day), but with a 5 day lag
See this from FT
Stats on UK ICU beds here
england.nhs.uk/statistics/sta…
I set 21 days as the time a patient will need on a ventilator, based on this
inquirer.com/health/coronav…
jonworth.eu/downloads/coro…
And as a .xls here
jonworth.eu/downloads/coro…
Taking a *conservative* % daily increase now of 25%, a *conservative* % daily increase of 15% 5 days from now, and 4% of patients needing ICU, and NHS adding 20 ICU beds a day, ICU capacity is exceeded on 5 April
⚠️ Unless the rate of daily increase in infections is massively reduced *and* ICU capacity hugely stepped up, I cannot see how the NHS is not going to run out of ICU capacity ⚠️
But currently I cannot see how the UK avoids a crisis in its health system. The question is if it's this month or next.
/ends