1 The UK govt. strategy to managing the #coronavirus epidemic relies on getting two broad things right.
Those are the science of epidemiology and the biology; the other is the science of psychology and the behaviour.
They need to know what the infection rate is and predict...
Those are the science of epidemiology and the biology; the other is the science of psychology and the behaviour.
They need to know what the infection rate is and predict...
2 what it will be in the future.
Once they know that they need to the know how to change behaviour so that it will reduce the infection to a manageable level, whatever that is, without unsustainable unintended damage to economy and people's normal health and wellbeing. . .
Once they know that they need to the know how to change behaviour so that it will reduce the infection to a manageable level, whatever that is, without unsustainable unintended damage to economy and people's normal health and wellbeing. . .
3 We have seen the epidemiology modelling feeding into the government's strategy and the outcomes of different options. That has clearly changed and developed with the availability of new data, leading to some shifts in strategy.
That is a welcome transparency, but. . .
That is a welcome transparency, but. . .
4 what we have not seen, or at least I haven't seen, is their thinking and modelling of the psychology and behaviour.
So we can only guess what the government is doing in relation to this key part of their strategy. To control the disease they need. . .
So we can only guess what the government is doing in relation to this key part of their strategy. To control the disease they need. . .
5 to, in effect, control behaviour. Psychologists will admit, that is not easy and is quite approximate, with relatively wide variation in possible outcome compared to other sciences.
At the moment the govt. are trying to achieve behaviour change by appealing to people to. . .
At the moment the govt. are trying to achieve behaviour change by appealing to people to. . .
6 'do the right thing'. Is this working?
The answer depends what they want to achieve. If they want almost 100% compliance and everyone to do what they have been asked, then clearly it is not working. It is having a big impact but not total. We haven't seen. . .
The answer depends what they want to achieve. If they want almost 100% compliance and everyone to do what they have been asked, then clearly it is not working. It is having a big impact but not total. We haven't seen. . .
7 data on compliance. I don't know if they have it.
If the govt. want some compliance - say 70% - but not total compliance, then they might be achieving it. What is important is that they are achieving the level they need based on the epidemiology. The two need to link...
If the govt. want some compliance - say 70% - but not total compliance, then they might be achieving it. What is important is that they are achieving the level they need based on the epidemiology. The two need to link...
8 If they want greater compliance govt need to change their approach and increase restrictions.
There are many approaches to behaviour change. Government depts tend to favour what is nicknamed 'nudge' psychology, where you nudge people toward the ultimate behaviour you want...
There are many approaches to behaviour change. Government depts tend to favour what is nicknamed 'nudge' psychology, where you nudge people toward the ultimate behaviour you want...
9 This relies on small incremental changes in behaviour.
The coronavirus epidemic is progressing quickly. This raises a question of whether there is time to gradually nudge people towards the behaviour the strategy and epidemiology shows we need. . .
The coronavirus epidemic is progressing quickly. This raises a question of whether there is time to gradually nudge people towards the behaviour the strategy and epidemiology shows we need. . .
10 I don't know if this is the govt. approach. I don't know if they are achieving the level of behaviour change their strategy needs. It would be useful if the they provided their behavioural data and modelling - the psychology equivalent of the report we saw from Imperial. . .
11 Without this we can only speculate on the likely strategic success.
As infection rapidly rises, I wonder whether it might not now be sensible to shift from a 'nudge' approach to more of a 'shove' approach.
Data could tell us. Time will tell us.
As infection rapidly rises, I wonder whether it might not now be sensible to shift from a 'nudge' approach to more of a 'shove' approach.
Data could tell us. Time will tell us.
