Thread by @MarinaAdshade

There’s been a lot of cheerful chatter in the last week about the prospects of post-#COVID19 #Babyboom.

Will that actually happen? Do we want that to happen?

I have some thoughts...

Last week @TMZ quoted Shark Tank investor, and apparently fertility expert, Daymond John as saying, “We definitely will see a baby boom, 100%". An outcome they described as a "one very good side effect".

nypost.com/2020/03/08/sha…

The belief here is that being confined to your home during a global pandemic and massive economic downturn is pretty much the same when the power was out for two days during the New York Blackout. But that "baby boom" was pure urban legend. sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/…

This isn't to say that there is no story here, but that the story is not nearly as simple as saying that people who are confined to their homes for an extended period will have more sex. I think we all know that is true.

First up - Social distancing and shelter in place orders make for extremely good birth control. Teens can't get pregnant on Zoom. There are about 200,000 teen births every year in the US and I think we will see a drop in that number for 2020.

Thanks to @kearney_melissa also have good information that suggests that teen births are pro-cyclical - economic uncertainly is associated with lower teen birth rates.

And rights now, we have plenty of that.

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

Business cycles don't just affect teen births. Right now we are looking at a historic increase in unemployment for Q2 2020, and uncertainly for the remainder of the year. Doesn't sound like a great time to expand the family.

Second up - more than 70,000 babies each year are born using fertility treatments like #IVF. The American Society for Reproductive Medicine has now asked it >8,000 members to stop treatments. Sad. nytimes.com/live/2020/coro…

One area where there is some uncertainty is in terms of the availability of abortions. #PlannedParenthood has suggested that there is an increase in demand for these services in light the current health and economic crisis. buzzfeednews.com/article/emaoco…

At the same time, I don't think any of us are naive enough to believe that legislators won't use their newly bestowed state of emergency powers to shut down abortion providers. Some have already taken that stand. thehill.com/homenews/state…

Another factor that could increase births is the possibility of a global shortage of contraceptives.

devex.com/news/opinion-h…

This is not a future problem, this is a now problem given that manufacturing has been shutting down for months in areas that supply these products. Hopefully, policymakers will take this problem seriously. But I think we all know it's not top of the agenda.

Finally (but probably not finally) given the big questions around both the physical effects of COVID-19 on pregnancy and the very real concerns about access to health care. I suspect there will be many families who are choosing to postpone planned births until we know more.

I would say that on balance, that the overall effect on the birth rate from the pandemic in wealthy nations will be that there will be a decrease in planned births and an increase in unplanned births.

I am going to have to disagree with @newyorkpost that the increased in unplanned births is a "very good side effect" of the pandemic.

Women who experience unplanned births are more likely to suffer physical abuse and mental health issues - for those of us who care about the lives of women, these are two things that are top of our minds right now.

Children whose mothers did not plan their births are more likely to have poor physical and mental health, less likely to finish high school and more likely to be involved in the criminal justice system as teenagers.

These are long-run costs not just to individuals but to society

And even the siblings of those children suffer poorer outcomes than those whose mothers were able to choose the timing of their subsequent births.

I know this is all a bit of downer, so here is a video of baby bonobos giggling to make you feel better.

That's the end of my rant. If it makes you feel better to think that at the end of the day there will be millions of bundles of joy, then go with that. Nothing wrong with a good fairytale.