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I don’t see this discussed much, but this strong correlation makes me ask a lot of question about this pandemic.

This is the correlation between GDP per capita and confirmed COVID cases (per million people).

Confirmed cases, of course, are only a fraction of all cases.
And as it is of course relevant, this is the correlation between the number of total tests (again per million people) and GDP per capita.

[Our latest data on testing can be found here: ourworldindata.org/covid-testing]
And then this is the correlation between deaths (again per million) and GDP per capita.
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More from @MaxCRoser see all

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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
How many are expected to die from COVID-19?

Here is what ‘superforecasters’ think.
This is the group of the most accurate 2% of forecasters from a large-scale, 4-year forecasting tournament.

Most (45%) expect between 800,000 and 8 million deaths.

goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboar…
This is within the range of the large global causes of deaths.

The range from suicides to cancer globally as the chart shows.

For more see our work on the causes of deaths:
ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death
Important to keep in mind that we should also expect an impact on other causes of deaths.

Because healthcare capacity for other health issues is limited or because people that need treatment do not seek treatment as they are afraid to get infected.

See ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Read 3 tweets
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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
👉Here you find our up to date statistics until now OurWorldInData.org/Coronavirus
––––

👇 Below you find my thoughts on what’s ahead: two possible futures.

Very different futures.

Let’s call it Pandemics, Fast and Slow
The COVID19 pandemic has begun, how it ends is now in all of our hands.

These early days are the most important days, because how a pandemic ends depends on how it begins.
Why are these days so important?

And what can we all – including you and me – do?
Read 33 tweets
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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
Is it actually possible to #FlattenTheCurve?

Yes, St Louis did it before.
In the terrible pandemic of 1918.

The chart shows their success:
* Philadelphia downplayed it and held a parade in 1918
* St. Louis canceled gatherings and flattened the curve

pnas.org/content/104/18…
The whole paper is very relevant for today and very interesting.
It is open-access here pnas.org/content/104/18…

On my point above here is a key passage from this research.
And important to note that according to this research not only the peak mortality was lower, but the total mortality over the entire epidemic was lower.

It wasn’t that deaths were just postponed.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Anthony Costello
@globalhlthtwit
My longish thread on the Academy of Medical Science News Briefing with Sir Patrick Vallance and Prof Chris Whitty last night, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Global Health Lab chaired by Richard Horton and Prof Martin McKee. panopto.lshtm.ac.uk/Panopto/Pages/… (1)
The News briefing. Medics/scientists are used to robust debate. It should not descend into personal abuse. For example, I’m happy to be told I’m ‘utterly wrong’ and to debate about strategies. Debate is the essence of evaluation and finding a way forward. But no abuse.(2)
Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance have an unenviable job, as do the 20 or so members of the SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group of Experts). They welcome debate and robust argument. They face extremely complex issues and difficult decisions. We must help them (3)
Read 25 tweets
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B Sriramulu
@sriramulubjp
Till date 1,14,705 passengers have been screened in Karnataka.
The details of points of entry are as follows.
1. KAIL airport –80,131 passengers
2. Mangalore International airport–29,069 passengers.
3. 5,505 passengers have been screened at Mangalore and Karwar seaports. 1/5
104 arogya sahayavani 40 lines for receiving calls for #COVIDー19 . Cal today 25,726 calls have been received for whom necessary guidance has been provided (2/5)
Mental health counseling is being done for all the positive confirmed #COVIDー19 cases and passengers who are on home quarantine. Till yesterday, 537 counseling sessions have been held. (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
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Moritz Kuhn
@kuhnmo
@christianbaye13 & me have been thinking about the big differences in mortality rates so far during the corona outbreak in Europe. The differences in case-fatality rates are humongous. Italy has one of 6% while countries like Norway, Denmark & Germany have rates still close to 0.
Of course the rates will likely converge somewhat over time as the virus spreads and there are many effects in this. Division bias may play a role, as does the time since the outbreak.
However, we thought maybe there is something to learn in this in order to help to organize our lives in a way to minimize the risks for us and we pose to others. We picked up a striking data difference that @AndreasShrugged pointed out.
Read 23 tweets
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Amanda Jetté Knox
@MavenOfMayhem
Epidemiologists, virologists and other experts are telling us #COVID-19 is serious and we should make sure we take precautions to limit its spread.

And yet I still see people shaming those who are worried and calling it a “media-induced panic.”

Let's do a quick numbers thread.
Let’s say the mortality rate for #COVID-19 is 2% - a mid-range estimate by current worldwide numbers - and 50% of the Canadian population contracts the virus (estimates are between 30%-70%, so again, I’m going mid-range for numbers.)
The 2019 census tells us there are 37,590,000 Canadians.

Half our population is 18,795,00.

2% mortality rate results in 375,900 deaths. That’s a lot of people. That’s a small city - gone.
Read 7 tweets
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Ali
@aliostad
I will start today's thread on #COVID in Iran, following up from yesterday's #irancorona
DISCLAIMER:

The GOOD
- Government in a complete reversal taken #COVID seriously
- As per contacts, many stay indoors if they can

The BAD:
- Explosion of cases in new cities
- Tehran seems to be next
- Extreme shortage of basic hygiene supplies
- Street collapses continue
#irancorona
Read 37 tweets
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Akarnious
@Akarnious
#QUESTION = Are ALL Politicians absolutely LYING to the Australian Public about the Issue of -; #MIGRATION ??

See the Below Thread & Judge for Yourself

#REMEMBER = To make an informed choice for Voting requires ALL information to be presented
#QUESTION = Has that Happened ??
#NOTE
#ALP = Increasing Australia’s annual humanitarian intake of refugees to 27,000 by 2025 to address the global humanitarian crisis
Providing $450 million in funding over three years to support #UNHCR both globally and in South East Asia and the Pacific;
#NOTE
#GREENS = Full implementation by Australia of 1994 UN International Conference on Population & Development Program Action
+ Increase overseas aid budget to #minimum of 0.7% of GNI
+ INCREASE AUSTRALIA’S HUMANITARIAN INTAKE TO 50,000 PEOPLE PER YEAR
greens.org.au/sites/default/…
Read 21 tweets

Trending hashtags

#UNHCR #COVID #Chicago #coronavirus #experts #LA #CreateAccountability #MD #Wuhan #immorality #ProtectiveEquipment #AmericanSoil #GOs #MA #PunishmentToPublicHealth #FORCING #choice #Metooabusedbypsychopaths #minimum #OLYMPICS #MirrorMirror #WuhanCoronavirus #Zionism #Patterson #Hospitalize

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