Thread by @pmdfoster

So. Have filed my last #Brexit Bulletin (remember Brexit?) for @Telegraph - a quick thread on where we are at the moment ("in limbo) and where we might end up (God knows, hopefully somewhere less ideologically driven) 1/Thread

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@Telegraph First, where we are now - in short, "in limbo". So what does that mean in practice?

- both sides shared draft texts; handful of officials on either side are combing drafts but there is NO back and forth

- but in practice #Brexit meetings are cancelled. Specifically.. /2

@Telegraph The @michaelgove ‘XO’ cabinet committee, which oversees Brexit readiness, was suspended a week or so back, along with all the Whitehall and other official meetings that supported it. I understand the Cabinet has been told it won’t sit again “until further notice”. /3

@Telegraph @michaelgove Similarly, an industry source tells me that last week the government cancelled every EU-UK trade-related meeting for the following 10-day period. What govt had promised to share on border preps hasn't materialsed /4

@Telegraph @michaelgove It was telling that Michael Gove – the Cabinet’s captain of Brexit operations – was on the radio this morning, but the only topic on anyone’s mind was the coronavirus. That would have been unthinkable just a few weeks ago. /5

@Telegraph @michaelgove So what happens now? My firm betting (ignore the current official line from Number 10) is that the UK will have no choice but to seek an extension to the negotiating period before July 1, although I understand there is no official discussion of this on both sides. /6

@Telegraph @michaelgove Extension will represent a ‘breach of contract’ for some of @BorisJohnson's backbenchers, but he will not be alone in invoking a ‘force majeure’ clause as a result of coronavirus.

There will need to be a money negotiation; it can be done in a very neutral way, I'd expect /7

@Telegraph @michaelgove @BorisJohnson It is a pity that politics means that this inevitability has to be delayed until its necessity becomes self-evident.

There will have been an opportunity cost in delaying the redeployment of valuable human resources that those in government may yet regret. /8

@Telegraph @michaelgove @BorisJohnson What happens when it comes time to re-engage? Well that depends what happens, of course with #coronavirus #COVID19

My personal hope is that Govt looks to negotiate a more thoughtful and less ideological Brexit than the one it was shaping up to deliver at the end of this year/9

@Telegraph @michaelgove @BorisJohnson That means finding ways, for example, to maintain links to EU pandemic warning systems; to the EU's aviation saftey agency and heeding the warnings of logistics and business on fragility of supply chinas - QED quad erat demonstrandum #COVID19 (See threads passim) /10

@Telegraph @michaelgove @BorisJohnson A more measured approach will, I suspect, partly be a question of necessity, since industry, business and the services will be in no position to absorb the kind of disruption and dislocations that the government was planning to inflict upon them. /11

@Telegraph @michaelgove @BorisJohnson It is sobering to see that 10 days after the public started shopping hard, the supermarket supply chains have manifestly been unable to adjust for the demand.

The battering of Sterling is another reminder of perils of being a small ship on a stormy sea /12

Perhaps it is too much to think that when the #COVID19 crisis clears (and in a worst case scenario, with the epidemic coming in two or three ‘waves’ that might be 18 months away) the broader politics of the Brexit negotiation will be less adversarial – on both sides.

Of course, the needle could swing the other way. It is too early to say who will emerge as political beneficiaries of the #coronavirus outbreak, Macron or Le Pen? Conte or Salvini? – but I still bet the economic fallout will practically limit options. /14

But frankly all speculation seems idle at the moment, since none of us have a crystal ball as to just how different the world will look and feel when the coronavirus storm passes, as it surely will.

Until then, the Brexit project remains in limbo, destination unknown ENDS/15

PS...heartfelt thanks to all the loyal #Brexit Bulletin readers. Calculated I'd written 110,000 words in that period in that column alone. When the space opens again to do #Brexit @telegraph readers will be in the ultra-capable hands of @JamesCrisp6 @asabenn @edwardmalnick