Thread by @Smyth_Chris

Neil Ferguson of Imperial says his modelling shows that with NHS ICU surge and new national lockdown, Covid-19 demand on hospitals likely to be "within capacity"

This could work...

Ferguson say initially it was thought there were "clear advantages economically to having it over by the summer" if the NHS could cope.

But then modelling found it couldn't and "slightly reluctantly" Britain moved to lockdown

Peak demand on ICU expected in 2.5-3 weeks and then declining, Ferguson projects

Fatality estimates with lockdown now 20,000 but "it could be substantially lower than that"

Only "large scale testing and contact tracing" will allow lockdown to end and the economy restarts, Ferguson says

Risk that the economic hit of long-term lockdown could harm health more than Covid-19 is "very valid consideration", says Ferguson.

But govt not focusing on that, only on ensuring the NHS can cope

Goal for later in the year is to use testing and contact tracing to maintain infections at low levels "indefinitely"

Summer could reduce transmission by 10-20 per cent, which could help but a large outbreak in warm weather still possible, @neil_ferguson says

@neil_ferguson But there are hotspots where hospitals "are already being overwhelmed", @neil_ferguson warns

@neil_ferguson But bad is that on recent data, he think each case infects closer to 3 others, not 2.5 as previously thought

Summary here of some cautious optimism:

thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/n…