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A key issue in the cost-benefit analysis on #COVID19 is how ending suppression would affect the economy*. I assume main mechanism is through *voluntary* social distancing. What is the best estimate of that? 1/4 @ATabarrok

*NOTE: Release is terrible for health.
Is there an estimate of prevalence response elasticity (using econ epi terms) for COVID? If the policy switched, should we assume that there would be a comms strategy to reduce fear? 2/4
A 2nd reason release may hurt the economy is death. But those effects are mitigated because most of those who pass are above 70 (sadly). There will be absenteeism among young. 3/4
Is there another reason the economy will crash w/o lockdown that I have missed? 4/4
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Anup Malani
@anup_malani
Thinking about suppression v. mitigation for India. One issue that came up is breadth of immunity & future corona flare-ups. Suppression relies on vaccine acquired immunity (VAI); mitigation on natural immunity (NI). This may have implications for comparing loss of life. 1/6
By immune breadth I mean the⬇️in probability of infection/harm as you ⬆️ distance between current & next strain in genetic/antigenic space. 2/6
For old time gamers, think of it as the radius of the explosion when you fire at incoming missiles in Missile Command: bigger breadth is better cuz you knock out more missiles. The bigger the immune breadth, the more protected you are against future strains.* 3/6
Read 10 tweets
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Anup Malani
@anup_malani
Why are employers & schools slow to close? They are weighing benefits & costs. And both have wide confidence intervals, if not ambiguity. In this context, information is marginally very valuable. And what others do provides info. So we'll see a lot of herd behavior. Eg, ... 1/6
schools all closing at once after each dithering for a while. The delay seems costly to those convinced of benefits of distancing. But not to those actors! Their decision is rational given their info set. If you are convinced we need to act fast, you need to understand this. 2/6
It'll help you figure out how to convince employers & schools to act sooner. Implications?

1/Govt can lead by example. Close your own workplaces. Even if you don't have legal authority to quarantine generally. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
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Anup Malani
@anup_malani
Just posted a revision of my paper with @sarahcobey & Frank Wen on the effects of flu vaccine on evolution of seasonal flu. biorxiv.org/content/early/…
Main points: 1/ Vaccination *on ave* slows antigenic drift of flu, so it has dynamic benefits not previously thought.
2/ Evolutionary effects raise social benefit of vaccination, thereby lowering its private benefit. This increases the severity of the collective action problem, making vaccination policy more important.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Dr. Ifeanyi Arthur Okowa
@IAOkowa
#COVIDー19 is a respiratory virus. This is why, as a precautionary measure, in the last 72 hours, the Delta State Government has acquired 19 new ventilators and a good number of monitors that will be used by our medical staff in the event of an outbreak.
Yesterday, in a live broadcast, I announced the following precautionary measures that are aimed at protecting our citizens and residents of from the #COVID-19 Virus.
#COVID19Update
1. All institutions of learning: Primary, Secondary and Tertiary are to close for a period of 30 days at the end of school hours today — Wednesday, 25th March, 2020.
#COVID19Update
Read 13 tweets
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LOrion
@LOrion
MAR 24 #COVIDー19 #MDTHREAD 1: tinyurl.com/se479vy
TODAY's #US Numbers as of 10:58 AM
CASES 50,212 DEATHS 606..
#Recovered 333 (see Importance below)
By Rick Noack, Lateshia Beachum, Kim Bellware,
Marisa Iati, Siobhán O'Grady, Adam Taylor and
John Wagner
10:51 a.m. PDT
MAR24 #COVID19 #MDTHREAD 2: Here from my AM MD Threadlet.. SOMETHING POSITIVE about it all..
The Importance of our #RECOVERED
tinyurl.com/ty32gxb .. with #Immunologic data from @NAChristakis .. LINK in my TWEET 1.
Please read esp #Medicals who will understand. @maddow @CNN
MAR 24 #COVID19 #MDTHREAD 3: Here is link to Yesterdays's MAR 23 ...36 TWEET THREAD..

tinyurl.com/s2x2ffx
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Read 32 tweets
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Anthony Costello
@globalhlthtwit
My longish thread on the Academy of Medical Science News Briefing with Sir Patrick Vallance and Prof Chris Whitty last night, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Global Health Lab chaired by Richard Horton and Prof Martin McKee. panopto.lshtm.ac.uk/Panopto/Pages/… (1)
The News briefing. Medics/scientists are used to robust debate. It should not descend into personal abuse. For example, I’m happy to be told I’m ‘utterly wrong’ and to debate about strategies. Debate is the essence of evaluation and finding a way forward. But no abuse.(2)
Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance have an unenviable job, as do the 20 or so members of the SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group of Experts). They welcome debate and robust argument. They face extremely complex issues and difficult decisions. We must help them (3)
Read 25 tweets
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Jens Suedekum
@jsuedekum
Key question for anyone thinking about the economic consequences of #COVID19 :

For how long will the current (almost complete) shutdown of the economy have to last?

Just 1-2 months? 6 months? A year? Even longer?
Nobody knows for sure, but recent studies give some hope. /Thread
Obviously, the longer the shutdown will go on, the deeper the recession, and the harder the design of policies to insure workers and firms.

Also the acceptance in the general public will evaporate over time, because not all agree with it and are willing & able to bear the costs.
Take Germany as an example: schools are closed and are scheduled to re-open on April 19. This closure was controversial, because it keeps many adults away from work.

For now, most people seem to accept it. But this will change if the "exit day" is pushed into the gray future. /3
Read 15 tweets
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LizaYuzda
@LizaYuzda
Six new #COVIDー19 in bc
2 related to Iran travel
2 in 60s from princess cruise 11-21 feb trip - Fraser health region - stable but in hosp for observation
More may test positive who were on that cruise
2 most concerning - residents of Lynn valley care centre
#bcpoli
Dr Bonnie Henry says the two positive tests in the care home leading to large investigation into residents and workers and what contact they’ve had.
And there are restrictions on that facility now for who is in and out.
#bcpoli #COVIDー19
Four recovered
The icu patient stable
2 I
All others in isolation
Also those with contact in isolation
“We are in an extraordinary situation” - Henry says - if you are sick stay home, keep your kids home.
But know that not everyone who is sick has #COVIDー19
Read 17 tweets
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@mujunaeem
Pandemic preparedness: Disposable gloves instructions.

I use the gloves when using public transit and going into public places - like a shop. I use them differently in each instance.

Read #thread below; #coronavirus #COVID19 #COVIDー19

1/12
The instances where I have to use the glove has reduced due to voluntary social distancing that I am practicing right now. 2/12
When on public transit, I wear two gloves - one for each hand. Gloves go on just before boarding. I touch my wallet before touching anything else to pay for transit and then put it back before I touch anything. 3/12
Read 13 tweets

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