Thread by @Seattle2019nCov

This article has been circulating widely today -- for good reason. It's worth reading.

It's also long, so this thread will house some of the main points.

#COVID19 #Coronavirus

theatlantic.com/health/archive…

A global pandemic of this scale was inevitable.

In recent years, hundreds of health experts have written books, white papers, and op-eds warning of the possibility.

Many hypothesized what would might happen if a new coronavirus swept the globe.

And then one did. Hypotheticals became reality. “What if?” became “Now what?”

So, now what?

The next generation's lives will be shaped by choices made in the coming weeks.

The U.S. was supposed to be prepared.

On the Global Health Security Index, a report card that grades every country on its pandemic preparedness, the United States has a score of 83.5—the world’s highest.

Rich, strong, developed, America is supposed to be the readiest of nations. That illusion has been shattered.

Despite months of advance warning as the virus spread in other countries, when America was finally tested by COVID-19, it failed.

The CDC's flawed tests fiasco was the original sin of America’s pandemic failure, the single flaw that undermined every other countermeasure.

No simulation even considered that a possibility.

In a crucial month when the American caseload shot into the tens of thousands, only hundreds of people were tested.

A health-care system that already runs close to full capacity, and that was already challenged by a severe flu season, was suddenly faced with a virus that had been left to spread, untracked, through communities around the country.

America’s health-care system operates on the assumption that unaffected states can help beleaguered ones in an emergency.

That ethic works for localized disasters such as hurricanes or wildfires, but not for a pandemic that is now in all 50 states.

Cooperation has given way to competition; some worried hospitals have bought out large quantities of supplies, in the way that panicked consumers have bought out toilet paper.

Partly, that’s because the White House is a ghost town of scientific expertise. A pandemic-preparedness office that was part of the National Security Council was dissolved in 2018.

To an extent, the near-term future is set because COVID-19 is a slow and long illness. People who were infected several days ago will only start showing symptoms now, even if they isolated themselves in the meantime.

Some of those people will enter intensive-care units in early April.

Numbers are now starting to rise exponentially: As of Wednesday morning, the official case count was 54,000, and the actual case count is unknown.

The U.S. has fewer hospital beds per capita than Italy. A study released by a team at Imperial College London concluded that if the pandemic is left unchecked, those beds will all be full by late April.

In that scenario, by the end of June, for every available ICU bed, there will be roughly 15 COVID-19 patients in need of one. By the end of the summer, the pandemic will have directly killed 2.2 million Americans.

This is the worst-case scenario. To avert it, four things need to happen—and quickly.

The first and most important is to rapidly produce masks, gloves, and other personal protective equipment.

The Defense Production Act is needed to launch a wartime effort in which American manufacturers switch to making medical equipment

The Defense Logistics Agency would manage the massive logistics and supply-chain operation now needed across the country.

This group prepares the U.S. military for overseas operations and that has assisted in past public-health crises, including the 2014 Ebola outbreak.

This agency can also coordinate the second pressing need: a massive rollout of COVID-19 tests.

Some shortages are being addressed. The FDA is now moving quickly to approve tests developed by private labs.

At least one can deliver results in less than an hour, potentially allowing doctors to know if the patient in front of them has COVID-19.

The third need is social distancing, which will determine whether the pandemic accelerates beyond capacity or slows to containable levels.

Think of it this way: There are now only two groups of Americans.

Group A includes everyone involved in the medical response, whether that’s treating patients, running tests, or manufacturing supplies.

Group B includes everyone else, and their job is to buy Group A more time.

The fourth urgent need is clear coordination.

The importance of social distancing must be impressed upon a public who must also be reassured and informed.

If Trump stays the course, if Americans adhere to social distancing, if testing can be rolled out, and if enough masks can be produced, there is a chance that the country can still avert the worst predictions and at least temporarily bring the pandemic under control.

No one knows how long that will take, but it won’t be quick. “It could be anywhere from four to six weeks to up to three months,” Fauci said, “but I don’t have great confidence in that range.”

/extraction

To reiterate: the whole article is worth reading, so please do if you have the time.

The chapter summarized above is called The Next Few Months. The remaining chapters cover The End Game and The Aftermath.

Please, read it if you have the time.