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It's just pure, unvarnished incompetence, and the harm might fall even more heavily on Trump's own supporters. Ventilators & ICUs aren't like corn or firearms, they're a distinctly urban phenomenon. 94% of ICU beds are in metropolitan areas. Let's take a look. /1
Merge these two together and you get a political map of COVID-19 treatment capacity (third pic). Everywhere that's orange is a county that voted for Trump and has zero ICU beds. Pink counties voted for Trump and don't even have hospitals. The numbers per capita are bad too. /2
Even if we focus on just a few swing states and on just the biggest counties, the Clinton-voting counties typically have more than 1 ICU bed per 1,000 residents aged 60+. The Trump-voting counties rarely do. Some big Trump-voting counties in Michigan have no ICU beds at all. /3
Whether this makes it into Trump voters' heads, who knows. They've rejected a lot of indisputable information. Either way, their communities aren't prepared for COVID-19, and Trump isn't helping them.

Source for ICU data khn.org/news/as-corona…

Also see sccm.org/Blog/March-202…
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Max Kennerly
@MaxKennerly
Lloyd's a billionaire and Senior Chairman at Goldman Sachs. He could easily employ a team of actuaries, biostatisticians, economists, epidemiologists, hospitalists, infectologists, and statisticians to price out various cost/benefit scenarios.

But he won't, because...
/1
...the economic numbers blow up. Let's do a thought experiment. Assume:

(a) we still do enough social distancing to reduce infection rates by a whopping 75%;

(b) only 20% of infected people need health care services, and only 30% of those need an ICU.

What happens then?
/2
The healthcare system collapses. Consider this article in the NEJM today: nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

What I described above is the "severe" scenario. We'd have 3,840,000 patients needing to use 85,000 ICU beds, 160,000 ventilators, and 25,000 respiratory therapists (per shift).
/3
Read 9 tweets
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Max Kennerly
@MaxKennerly
That stupid Medium post is going mainstream. Okay, fine, let's go through some data. Why listen to me? Two weeks ago I was at Johns Hopkins for a deposition of one of their bio-statisticians. Critically reviewing medical research data and communicating it is part of what I do. /1
How bad is COVID-19? Here are the raw numbers, by country, for deaths per case. In America, about 1.5% of people confirmed to have it have died. That's in line with the latest analysis of Wuhan (1.4% of symptomatic cases died).

It's deadly, but it spreads like a common cold. /2
How many people in America have SARS-CoV-2? A team at Notre Dame estimated ~22,876 (7,451-53,044) as of March 12. A team at UMass estimated ~54,100 (5,600-125,300).

That was 9 days ago. It has likely doubled since then. Or doubled twice since then. Maybe even three times. /3
Read 9 tweets
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Max Kennerly
@MaxKennerly
Sanders's 2017 & 2019 proposals said, "There needs to be vigorous debate as to the best way to finance our Medicare for All legislation." If not now, when? He left Warren dangling when she outlined how to do it. If he won't fight for the hard parts of M4A, it won't happen.
/1
"Medicare for All" as a concept is a winning message among Dems and independents. But that support is quite susceptible to messaging, and much of it seems predicated on misconceptions, like people keeping their current plans. M4A is vulnerable to "Harry & Louise" attacks. /2
"Harry & Louise" helped kill Clinton's healthcare reform. And like @paulkrugman predicted when Harry & Louise oddly showed up again to promote the ACA, the health insurers used their goodwill to kill the public option. They know how to play this game. /3
Read 11 tweets

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Trump Hotels' website still lists Trump SoHo New York among its properties in the Our Hotels menu. Select its name though to access its page and there's a message about it being renamed

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