Thread by @TomKislingbury

With Todd Gurley in Atlanta I thought I'd share this.
It shows pass/rush attempts for the last decade.
The 2019 Falcons were historically pass-heavy.
The only teams in the last decade to pass more were the 2012 Lions and the 2018 Steelers.

If you remember the 2012 Lions it was the year Matt Stafford threw the ball 727 times.
727!
That's 45 attempts per game.
He still only managed 20 TDs which was ridiculously low.
His 6.8 yds/att was awful too.
Weird year

The 'lead' backs were Mike LeShoure [798 rush yards] and Joique Bell [414].

The year after [2013] Stafford 'only' threw 634 times but had much better TD% and yds/Att.
Reggie Bush also had that 1,000 yard rushing season Lions fans had been hoping for.
It feels like a lifetime ago doesn't it?

2018 was the year Big Ben threw for 5,000+ yards for the first time ever.
He had 675 passing attempts [which puts into perspective how absurd Stafford in 2012 was with 727].

From a rushing PoV it was the James Conner year.
They absolutely rode him and he produced 973 rushing hards.
Worth noting he had just 215 carries though.
Even though he was a bellcow he didn't have that many carries [29th most in the last 2 seasons alone].

Obviously in 2019 Big Ben got hurt but I assume the unbalanced nature would have evened out a bit.
It certainly did in reality - the team threw just 510 passes.

So the point is - we can expect the Falcons to pass the ball and rush more next year. That's just regression to norms.
But I'm not sure it helps Gurley.
The 2019 Falcons were 20th of 320 teams in the past decade for offensive plays. That will drop.

They were also 54th in offensive yardage. Of 320 teams.
That will drop too.
So this team is going to pass less, run fewer plays and gain less yardage year on year.
That's not good news for anyone on this team

For Gurley in particular - I suspect he'll be used sparingly on passing plays.
The Rams massively dropped their RB targets from 2018 to 2019 and I think Gurley's physical ability was one of the reasons for this.
I think he'll be more of an early down rusher in Atlanta.

It's also going to be a shared backfield. As it has been under the current Falcons management most of the time.
They did have a year when they rode a young Devonta Freeman hard but that was an exception - not the guiding philosophy.
If you think a beat-up Gurley changes that...

So we can expect between 300-350 RB carries.
And optimistically Gurley might secure 175-200 of them.
20-30 catches.
So about 200 touches.
For about 1,000 total yards.
That's enough to be a low RB2 or high RB3.
Dependent on [mostly random] TD numbers.

Some similar players from 2018:
Ronald Jones. 203 touches, 1,033 yds. 9 TDs.
Melvin Gordon. 204 touches, 908 yds. 6 TDs.
Devin Singletary. 181 touches, 969 yds.4 TDs

In 2018:
Tevin Coleman. 199 touches, 1,076 yds. 9 TDs.
Matt Breida. 180 / 1,075 / 5.
Marlon Mack 212 / 1,011 / 10
Sony Michel 216 / 981 / 6
Dion Lewis 214 / 917 / 2

RoJo - RB27
Melv Gordon - RB23
Singletary - RB37

Tevin Coleman - RB18
Matt Breida - RB27
Marlon Mack - RB21
Sony Michel - RB32
Dion Lewis - RB29

So if he gets lucky and scores more TDs than expected he's a mid range RB2.
If you get unlucky he's a low-end RB3.
Is that exciting?

Bear in mind that RBs get hurt a lot [obviously].
Less than 50% of W1 starting RBs play in 16 games.
And Gurley has a lot of tread on his tyres.
And a history of injury.
and ARTHRITIS.

He's going to have some good weeks and I certainly don't think he's going to fall off a cliff. But I also do not think he's exciting in any way.
And the only direction his value as an asset goes is dooooooown.
This is a sell window

@threadreaderapp - please would you unroll this?
Good bot.