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Nothing is absolute in investing. Here are some examples:

Just because you cannot time the markets, doesn't mean others haven't done it successfully.

Just because you don't know how to use technical analysis, doesn't mean others haven't used it successfully.
Just because you don't know how to invest into real estate with gains of 40% to 80% returns over 12 to 24 months, doesn't mean others haven't done those development strategies successfully. 😂

Just because you invest (long term), doesn't mean traders who don't aren't successful.
Just because you diversify and think its prudent to do so, doesn't mean others haven't made life-long fortunes with concentrated bets...

e.g. going all-in on 7 companies, going all-in on that startup you know will take off, or going all-in on a real estate development deal.
I never try to talk in absolutes. Because I know that...

• others have done it before
• knowing isn't doing
• there are 101 ways to skin a cat
• one shouldn't be one dimensional
• one ought to remain open-minded & flexible
By the way, my message here has always been:

• stay away from trading (however trading works for some)

• diversify your capital properly between stocks & property (however, some pull off concentrated VC bets making a fortune)

• skin the cat your way & make that profit!
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Tiho Brkan
@TihoBrkan
Private debt markets — especially those we focus around, namely real estate debt — tend to seize up during volatility periods associated with stock market panics.

Unless there is an important reason for real estate owners to refinance in that given moment of volatility...
...you tend to see most asset owners hold back from the market place and pass on doing any activity for the time being.

This shrinks the volume of private debt markets dramatically, something we are about to see in the coming months for the space we focus on.
Will the real estate private debt markets go through the kind of forced selling that we saw in the 2008 & 09 period?

It's hard to say. I don't like using a crystal ball.

However, it is quite apparent to us that, for the most part, real estate leverage has been a lot lower...
Read 20 tweets
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Tiho Brkan
@TihoBrkan
1/ Update on the Merrill Lynch credit spreads.

Before I update you guys on the spreads I'm looking at with a few interesting charts, I have to say I'm very surprised at the strength in the Junk Bond ETF today.

$HYG
2/ US high yielding credit spreads peaked around 11% spread over similar-maturity Treasuries a few days ago.

Currently easing off a little.

As its reported, that was the fastest widening in the history of the junk bond market.

From 3 & change to 11 points in a matter of weeks!
3/ From a contrary perspective, an extreme credit spread over Treasuries is a signal that, eventually, we should be going long equities.

The only question is how far does the widening spread keep going, before its time to buy?

1990: 12.9%
2002: 10.4%
2008: 21.3%
2016: 8.6%
Read 9 tweets
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Tiho Brkan
@TihoBrkan
1/ Investing for the long run.

Like so many others, I've been waiting (hoping?) for the stock market to crash properly.

Now it has, and it could go lower. Who knows.

But why?

Because I've started a trust fund for my unborn kid(s).
2/ I'm going to keep it quite simple because a lot of my time is taken by working & managing our family office and specifically focusing on direct real estate and agricultural deals.

Therefore I just want something passive and something that stands a chance of doing well.
3/ Investment vehicle: Small-Cap Value

It isn't a secret that for a 100 years Small Cap Value has outperformed the broad market with a 13.6% CAGR.

This assumes a starting point just before the Great Depression (awful timing) & counts in the recent -45% drawdown, too.
Read 7 tweets

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💪A thread on amazing Twitter threads 😍👇
In the process of revamping my #Twitter profile (dormant earlier), I have come to appreciate the wonderful underutilized platform it is!
Some threads contain crisp knowledge capsules that can help many. Starting 1 on such curated content
1. I largely rely on this: threadreaderapp.com to find content
2. What I wish to share is what coincides largely with my interests- #Learning, #Investing, #Behavioralpsychology (#mentalmodels, #bias, etc), #Businessbooks, Industry insights/case studies, Life experiences, etc
3/n
 While it will be difficult to structure the order of content here, I will try to block threads by category (as noted above & more). Feel free to comment with any good thread that you would have come across. Cumulative learning always helps.
#vicariouslearning
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