+UPDATE+
German media now discussing research from their Coronavirus experience that *suggests* virus spreads far more in mass gatherings than previously thought..but less in places like shops or via surfaces.
NB: it still spreads in all - but relative dangers being studied.
German media now discussing research from their Coronavirus experience that *suggests* virus spreads far more in mass gatherings than previously thought..but less in places like shops or via surfaces.
NB: it still spreads in all - but relative dangers being studied.
2/
This suggests relative weight of people:
1. Density
2. Proximity
3. Numbers
Far more important than initially thought.
If true this greatly influences our “exit strategies” on Coronavirus ie. no immediate return to mass public transport or mass sport/cultural events etc.
This suggests relative weight of people:
1. Density
2. Proximity
3. Numbers
Far more important than initially thought.
If true this greatly influences our “exit strategies” on Coronavirus ie. no immediate return to mass public transport or mass sport/cultural events etc.
3/
This has many other implications:
It suggests that lockdowns could be actually far more successful than previous hopes BUT that various pre lockdown practices should be delayed as long as possible - potentially till 2021.
Note this is based on current German thinking.
This has many other implications:
It suggests that lockdowns could be actually far more successful than previous hopes BUT that various pre lockdown practices should be delayed as long as possible - potentially till 2021.
Note this is based on current German thinking.
4/
In other words - societies need to think about not just shortterm containment of virus but on changing medium term practices.
If this research holds up expect to see incentivising home working + slower phased return to public events than previously thought over next 2 years.
In other words - societies need to think about not just shortterm containment of virus but on changing medium term practices.
If this research holds up expect to see incentivising home working + slower phased return to public events than previously thought over next 2 years.
5/
This research also seems to confirm why London has remained so far ahead of rest of the UK in Coronavirus cases.
It’s the one place where human density, numbers & proximity could not be mitigated so easily by individual actions until the lockdown.
Same applies to New York.
This research also seems to confirm why London has remained so far ahead of rest of the UK in Coronavirus cases.
It’s the one place where human density, numbers & proximity could not be mitigated so easily by individual actions until the lockdown.
Same applies to New York.
6/
This would seem to provide an explanation as to why Cheltenham was so much more dangerous than the Liverpool-Madrid game...even tho Madrid fans came from CV hotspot.
It was mixed mass nature of Cheltenham that was so dangerous not the *mere* presence of some infected people.
This would seem to provide an explanation as to why Cheltenham was so much more dangerous than the Liverpool-Madrid game...even tho Madrid fans came from CV hotspot.
It was mixed mass nature of Cheltenham that was so dangerous not the *mere* presence of some infected people.
7/
Would suggest that economic fall-out didn’t need to be so high if early
1. Separation of retired from others
2. Mass gatherings ban
3. Incentivised home work
Had taken place.
This would have reduced deaths & reduced spread with far less impact on general population/economy.
Would suggest that economic fall-out didn’t need to be so high if early
1. Separation of retired from others
2. Mass gatherings ban
3. Incentivised home work
Had taken place.
This would have reduced deaths & reduced spread with far less impact on general population/economy.
8/
Also suggests possibility that sporting & cultural events like football matches won’t just be held behind closed doors to “finish off” the 2019-20 season...
...but may we’ll be held without spectators for the 2020-21 season too.
Also suggests possibility that sporting & cultural events like football matches won’t just be held behind closed doors to “finish off” the 2019-20 season...
...but may we’ll be held without spectators for the 2020-21 season too.
9/
That’s why I expect the “lockdown” to finish this summer but...
...I expect a ban on mass gatherings (sporting, political, cultural events) to be in place for much longer..potentially even into 2021.
That’s why I expect the “lockdown” to finish this summer but...
...I expect a ban on mass gatherings (sporting, political, cultural events) to be in place for much longer..potentially even into 2021.
