1/ As epidemiologists explain about the #coronavirus #COVID2019 (or indeed any epidemic), the rate of spread R = D x O x T x S (explained below). We want to drive R as low as possible so the epidemic will die out. How do we do that?
2/ Some things we can’t control right now, others we can. D is the duration of the infection. Longer someone is infectious, the more spread. If we had a treatment, we could lower D. But we don’t (right now).
3/ S is the susceptibility of the population. Higher the S, the more spread. If we had a vaccine, we could lower S. But we don’t (right now).
4/ But there are still things we can do. O is the opportunities to infect. We can lower O. The more you walk around sick, the more spread. So people will need to self-quarantine if they get sick (especially healthcare workers).
5/ T is the transmission probability. You can lower this by wearing a mask (if sick or around sick people), washing your hands frequently and properly, etc. We may have the most control over T.
6/ Bottom line: We have some agency over how quickly and effectively this scary virus spreads. The more educated people are on this, the more likely we can get R to be <1, where the epidemic on average will die down.
