Thread by @SimonFraser00

1/11: Before #Covid19 the #geopolitical system was shifting from globalism & multilateralism towards a big power stand-off between #US & #China. The pandemic is accelerating this trend, as all major players struggle to cope. A thread on this, with input from @AlexWhite1812..

2/11: #China, source of the outbreak, has taken a big hit. It suppressed information & numbers. The lockdown apparently worked but was harsh. China is now struggling to reverse a backlash in world opinion through propaganda, exploiting “first recoverer” status & US disarray..

3/11: The early #US federal response was incoherent & failed any test of international leadership. Trump has been awful. But the Fed moved far and fast & some states & cities have done well. Disproportionately high fatalities would damage American prestige...

4/11: The #EU has lacked cohesion, though some countries have done well. The economic response reopened divisions on risk sharing in the #Eurozone and between Germany & France. The ECB has done OK after a weak start. The Commission has struggled to make a mark.

5/11: The #UK response has seemed insular & erratic. The crisis presages the challenges standalone Britain faces in exerting geopolitical influence after #Brexit. Like the EU, we will have to manage sharper tensions between our relations with #US & #China.

6/11: The pandemic has not yet hit the developing world hard. The health & economic damage in low & middle income countries could be immense, needing aid & debt forgiveness, threatening more #migration to Europe & further outbreaks of infection.

7/11: So what will follow? The crisis exposes domestic fragility in #China: high levels of public criticism; risk for Xi (not universally liked) if he is deemed to have done badly; damage to the Party’s legitimacy as provider of perpetual economic growth & national unity.

8/11: In #US #Covid19 will play straight into the election clash between Trump’s strident nationalism & Biden’s measured managerialism & internationalism. But animosity towards China is now bipartisan & structural; the difference is more of tone than substance.

9/11: This means both #US & #China have short term domestic incentives to treat each other aggressively, but their longer interest still lies in economic cooperation & political stability. The big question will be whether & how they find a balance of these conflicting pressures.

10/11: The context for geopolitical change will be severe #economic stress, debt, unemployment & inequality. Likely to lead to more protectionism, new controls on foreign investment, greater regulatory divergence & competition, more state intervention, greater fiscal pressure.

11/11: The right lesson from #Covid19 is that we need better collective answers to global problems. So far it seems to be hastening us in the opposite direction, away from the old political & economic equilibrium. Finding a new one may entail great disruption.