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3 Feb, 4 tweets, 8 min read
This is great by @jeromedrev & @patrickhaenni -- #HTS has come to represent something uniquely challenging.

After violently achieving domination (vs. #FSA, #AQ & #ISIS), it's now pursuing a policy of "gradual opening & mainstreamisation," giving concessions & seeking acceptance.
@jeromedrev @patrickhaenni The U.S, #Europe & #Turkey should press #HTS to address concerns & "define clear benchmarks which (if met) could enable HTS to shed its “terrorist” label," argue @dkhalifa & @NoahBonsey.

Doing so would symbolize a new diplomacy+military approach to CT.

crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…
@jeromedrev @patrickhaenni @dkhalifa @NoahBonsey Following yesterday's public revelation of #HTS hosting @FrontlinePBS (& others) in #Idlib, my thread below details how the former #AlQaeda affiliate has adapted in recent yrs & created new realities & challenges/dilemmas we'll have to deal w. eventually:

@jeromedrev @patrickhaenni @dkhalifa @NoahBonsey @frontlinepbs .@azelin is right here -- things are being measured on a very low bar; calls to delist #HTS strike me as premature at best.

BUT given the severity of the crisis in #Idlib, the lack of other solutions & #HTS's evolution, is it worth setting benchmarks/red lines to seek stability?

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More from @Charles_Lister

Charles Lister Profile picture
2 Feb
Very, very interesting.

#HTS & its leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani have just finished hosting @frontlinepbs's @Martin28Smith in #Idlib for 3 days.

How times change -- quite a difference from 2014/15.
@frontlinepbs @Martin28Smith #pt: It's no secret that #HTS has been pushing hard behind-the-scenes for opportunities to improve its image abroad -- first in outreach to researchers/institutes & more recently giving top access to highly-regarded media outlets.

And fwiw, PBS is one of several.
@frontlinepbs @Martin28Smith #pt: That #HTS is pushing this shouldn't come as a surprise -- the ingredients were put in place as far back as 2015, when a prolonged internal debate regarding the right path for Jabhat al-Nusra began. Clerical "lobby groups" got involved & then #JFS was created; then #HTS.
Read 14 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
1 Feb
#Syria's regime appears to be facing a sharp increase in public criticism from across its population - people are exasperated at rife corruption & incompetence.

In lieu of this, secret police have been behind a spate of arrests targeting prominent critics, many of them #Alawite.
#pt: While some observers in the West [inaccurately] attribute #Syria's deep economic crisis to sanctions, #Assad's "loyalist critics" don't appear to be convinced -- they've been laying the blame squarely at the regime & parliament's doorsteps.

i.e. the propaganda is faltering.
#pt: No matter where you look in #Assad-held areas, the regime is clearly unable to provide, govern, secure or stabilize.

For the many Syrians who've stood by the regime since '11, their sacrificed 'blood & treasure' appear to have been merely for Bashar -- no reciprocal award.
Read 17 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
21 Jan
Prioritizing or re-energizing diplomacy on #Syria policy does not necessitate ceding leverage & bestowing concessions to a criminal regime.

If pressure has failed to secure regime compromise, granting it breathing space certainly isn't -- it'll facilitate accelerated repression.
To wrest back 2/3 of #Syria under his control, #Assad 'burned the country' & 'cleansed his population' (his words).

That consequences of that scorched earth policy are now coming clear: a wrecked economy, broken society, crumbling state, rife corruption, warlordism & terrorism.
US & EU sanctions are not the cause of the collapse of the SYP, nor the existence of warlords, corrupt elite or an eroding middle class -- that's the result of #Assad's 10yrs of uncompromising, all-out war on his own people/country.

Removing sanctions is not some magic solution.
Read 10 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
22 Oct 20
Unless it's the case of 2 men with the same name, the name Samer Souad is/was an infamous smuggler who became particularly wealthy from fuel smuggling & black market trading in #Idlib.

Initially linked to Jamal Maarouf, some claimed he was linked to #HTS in recent years.
In addition to Samer Souad, locals also claim influential #HTS commander Abdulqader Tahhan (aka Abu Bilal Qadas) was at the targeted location outside #Salqin.

Qadas was given responsibility for Jisr al-Shughour security, following #HTS's recent crackdown on #AlQaeda loyalists.
Here's an image of the late-night meeting held in Jakara outside #Salqin -- reportedly convening #HTS security officials with other local notables.

Casualties likely to be more than the initially cited "2." Image
Read 15 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
20 Oct 20
Wow -- This is an extraordinary piece of work by @OSFJustice & @syrian_archive.

*The* definitive guide to #Syria's Scientific Studies & Research Center (SSRC), responsible for #Assad's chemical weapons program:

storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/f353d0… Image
@OSFJustice @syrian_archive The @OSFJustice & @syrian_archive detail the #SSRC's structure & its evolution:

- Jamraya Center

- Branch 450 (for storing, mixing & loading warheads pre-attack), supervised by #Assad, with Units in Safira (416), Khan Abu Al-Shamat (417), Latakia (418) & #Aleppo (419) ImageImage
@OSFJustice @syrian_archive #pt: #Syria's #SSRC cont'd:

- Institute 1000 (Electronics Institute), to produce electronic & computerized systems in a tunnel complex in Jamraya.

- Institute 2000 (Mechanical Institute), whose engineers cooperate with #NorthKorea & #Iran / produced barrel bombs & IRAMs. ImageImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
19 Oct 20
NEW - My brief analysis on reports of a high-level #Trump admin visit to #Assad's #Damascus in August -- timing, delegation & context raise substantial questions about #Syria policy:

mei.edu/blog/monday-br… Image
NEW - In response to reports of recent #Trump White House visit to #Syria, @SecPompeo says:

- “We will continue to work for the return not only of Austin but every American that’s held... [But] we’re not going to change American policy to do that.”

(i.e. no big deal on table)
@SecPompeo “Working to bring #American hostages home is always a noble endeavor... But our govt must engage in such efforts without legitimizing terrorist groups or absolving people who tortured U.S. citizens.”

- @joshrogin raises some important points/questions:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/… Image
Read 4 tweets

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