#Syria's regime appears to be facing a sharp increase in public criticism from across its population - people are exasperated at rife corruption & incompetence.
In lieu of this, secret police have been behind a spate of arrests targeting prominent critics, many of them #Alawite.
In lieu of this, secret police have been behind a spate of arrests targeting prominent critics, many of them #Alawite.
#pt: While some observers in the West [inaccurately] attribute #Syria's deep economic crisis to sanctions, #Assad's "loyalist critics" don't appear to be convinced -- they've been laying the blame squarely at the regime & parliament's doorsteps.
i.e. the propaganda is faltering.
i.e. the propaganda is faltering.
#pt: No matter where you look in #Assad-held areas, the regime is clearly unable to provide, govern, secure or stabilize.
For the many Syrians who've stood by the regime since '11, their sacrificed 'blood & treasure' appear to have been merely for Bashar -- no reciprocal award.
For the many Syrians who've stood by the regime since '11, their sacrificed 'blood & treasure' appear to have been merely for Bashar -- no reciprocal award.
#pt: From the Syrians I know who've remained in #Assad-held territories since '11, there are 2 main assertions:
1) There is truly no light at the end of the tunnel, absolutely no prospect for hope.
2) The height of the war in '14-15 was easier than facing today's challenges.
1) There is truly no light at the end of the tunnel, absolutely no prospect for hope.
2) The height of the war in '14-15 was easier than facing today's challenges.
#pt: Economic collapse next-door in #Lebanon catalyzed a financial crisis in #Syria based mainly on a lack of access to foreign currency (via #Beirut) - resulting in inflation (SYP now 3000:$1) & the death of the middle class.
Getting bread on the table is now a daily challenge.
Getting bread on the table is now a daily challenge.
#pt: The depreciation of the SYP has compounded #Syria's fuel crisis (as has pressure on #Iran's economy), leaving #Damascus unable to afford sufficient supplies, shipped in mainly from #Iran.
Plus subsidy cuts, declining imports & no domestic job creation/investments.
Plus subsidy cuts, declining imports & no domestic job creation/investments.
#pt: Faced by a seemingly irreversible economic spiral, neither #Russia or #Iran appear willing or able to bail #Assad out -- financially or via increased supplies.
For e.g - #Moscow has refused/held back wheat supplies despite the bread crisis & #Iran has refused new oil rates.
For e.g - #Moscow has refused/held back wheat supplies despite the bread crisis & #Iran has refused new oil rates.
#pt: On the security side, southern #Syria is crumbling as #Russia's "reconciliation" strategy collapses in on itself -- its own "former rebel" proxies are attacking regime targets & blocking attempts to resolve local conflicts.
Plus rising anger in #Druze-majority #Suwayda.
Plus rising anger in #Druze-majority #Suwayda.
#pt: The regime besieged, starved & carpet bombed #Daraa in mid-'18, coercing a mass surrender of #Syria's south.
Since then, it's provided zero aid & no stabilization assistance. #Iran & #Hezbollah flooded back, alongside #Assad loyalists. And Russia deployed 100 MPs.
= Chaos.
Since then, it's provided zero aid & no stabilization assistance. #Iran & #Hezbollah flooded back, alongside #Assad loyalists. And Russia deployed 100 MPs.
= Chaos.
#pt: #Daraa was meant to be #Russia's case study in how to resolve #Syria's conflict -- instead, it exemplifies just how incapable #Moscow is in doing so. It simply co-opted rebels & gave them a new badge, only to breath new life into their outright hostility to #Assad & #Iran.
#pt: In the central 'Badiya', #ISIS is clearly resurging, thanks in large part to the pro-regime alliance's inability (#Syria/#Russia/#Iran) to conduct an effective ISR/COIN campaign.
The trajectory here is *very* concerning & makes a mockery of the "leave it to #Russia" pitch.
The trajectory here is *very* concerning & makes a mockery of the "leave it to #Russia" pitch.
#pt: Plus we have ongoing conflicts in NW, N & NE #Syria, plus #Turkey-Kurd & #Israel-#Iran hostilities.
Not to forget #COVID, no reconstruction, OPCW allegations, deepening corruption & a *major* humanitarian crisis on the near horizon:
Not to forget #COVID, no reconstruction, OPCW allegations, deepening corruption & a *major* humanitarian crisis on the near horizon:
https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1353747443440095239
#pt: Beyond #Syria, another issue worthy of serious attention is refugees -- nearly 6 million of which show zero sign of returning, thus placing a permanent & unsustainable strain on #Turkey, #Lebanon & #Jordan.
For many reasons, we simply cannot accept they're staying forever.
For many reasons, we simply cannot accept they're staying forever.
#pt: All of this thread makes clear that #Syria's crisis is a long, long way from being resolved & assuming today's trajectory is sustained (frankly, it's likely to worsen), serious instability & regional spillover is - again - inevitable.
That cannot be allowed to transpire.
That cannot be allowed to transpire.
#pt: Given the state of affairs today & the clear trajectory #Syria is on, as well as the blatant evidence of how #Syria's crisis has destabilized the world since '11, proposals for #America to hand 25% more of #Syria to #Assad are utterly reckless & seemingly blind to reality.
#pt: U.S. & collective allied influence & leverage in #Syria might not be what is was before, but it's certainly not negligible as some insist on claiming -- #Assad's self-inflicted economic collapse has revealed a new vulnerability & opening for a serious diplomatic initiative.
#pt: To wash our hands of #Syria today would make the 2010-11 #Iraq withdrawal look like childsplay in terms of consequences -- more than anyone perhaps, #ISIS couldn't wish for a better scenario.
The chaos that'd ensure could quite likely ruin the Levant region long-term.
The chaos that'd ensure could quite likely ruin the Levant region long-term.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
