Prioritizing or re-energizing diplomacy on #Syria policy does not necessitate ceding leverage & bestowing concessions to a criminal regime.
If pressure has failed to secure regime compromise, granting it breathing space certainly isn't -- it'll facilitate accelerated repression.
If pressure has failed to secure regime compromise, granting it breathing space certainly isn't -- it'll facilitate accelerated repression.
To wrest back 2/3 of #Syria under his control, #Assad 'burned the country' & 'cleansed his population' (his words).
That consequences of that scorched earth policy are now coming clear: a wrecked economy, broken society, crumbling state, rife corruption, warlordism & terrorism.
That consequences of that scorched earth policy are now coming clear: a wrecked economy, broken society, crumbling state, rife corruption, warlordism & terrorism.
US & EU sanctions are not the cause of the collapse of the SYP, nor the existence of warlords, corrupt elite or an eroding middle class -- that's the result of #Assad's 10yrs of uncompromising, all-out war on his own people/country.
Removing sanctions is not some magic solution.
Removing sanctions is not some magic solution.
If US priorities in #Syria were [minimally] limited to CT, CW prevention & alleviating humanitarian suffering, we should recognize by now that all of these issues will be sustained or even accelerated were #Assad re-empowered -- not ended.
We're talking root causes vs. symptoms.
We're talking root causes vs. symptoms.
As a new @JoeBiden administration takes form, reassessing 10yrs of #Syria policy is unquestionably necessary -- but ignoring a decade of regime behavior would not be an ideal starting point.
#Assad has only ever blinked when he's perceived threat -- not when treated nicely.
#Assad has only ever blinked when he's perceived threat -- not when treated nicely.
@JoeBiden Now for some, "threat" sounds like military action (as with #Turkey in Feb 2020), but it doesn't have to be.
The consequences of #Syria's financial collapse have barely begun to emerge & as the gateway to solving that, we do hold leverage.
Hard diplomacy? Yes.
Conciliation? No.
The consequences of #Syria's financial collapse have barely begun to emerge & as the gateway to solving that, we do hold leverage.
Hard diplomacy? Yes.
Conciliation? No.
@JoeBiden This point by @ejbeals should go without saying, but it does appear we need to keep repeating it -- #Syria's ~6 million refugees are not going back w/o substantial change at home.
- "Returns aren't a lower hanging fruit than a peace deal."
- "Returns aren't a lower hanging fruit than a peace deal."
https://twitter.com/ejbeals/status/1352610193775976450
@JoeBiden @ejbeals 1) To suggest we should (a) accept the displacement of ~6 million #Syria refugees & (b) find "durable solutions for them elsewhere" is a non-starter, & appalling.
2) Keeping #Assad all-in *guarantees* -- as extensive polling has shown -- no returns & more repression/instability.
2) Keeping #Assad all-in *guarantees* -- as extensive polling has shown -- no returns & more repression/instability.
@ejbeals 3) On the contrary, the best way to facilitate additional/renewed outward refugee flows would be to "relieve pressure" on #Syria's economy -- #Assad has consistently signaled his strategic priority: 'retaking every inch of #Syria.'
Being bankrupt, his means to do so are limited.
Being bankrupt, his means to do so are limited.
@ejbeals The logic that leads to proposals like this is agonizingly disconnected from reality & the [root] sources of #Syria's intractable instability, displacement & economic ruin.
Let's not forget, *the most unstable* areas of #Syria today are those retaken by #Assad in 2018.
Let's not forget, *the most unstable* areas of #Syria today are those retaken by #Assad in 2018.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
