NEW - My brief analysis on reports of a high-level #Trump admin visit to #Assad's #Damascus in August -- timing, delegation & context raise substantial questions about #Syria policy:

mei.edu/blog/monday-br… Image
NEW - In response to reports of recent #Trump White House visit to #Syria, @SecPompeo says:

- “We will continue to work for the return not only of Austin but every American that’s held... [But] we’re not going to change American policy to do that.”

(i.e. no big deal on table)
@SecPompeo “Working to bring #American hostages home is always a noble endeavor... But our govt must engage in such efforts without legitimizing terrorist groups or absolving people who tortured U.S. citizens.”

- @joshrogin raises some important points/questions:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/… Image
@SecPompeo @joshrogin The US must seek to bring its citizens home, but not by weakening its strategic posture by withdrawing forces, eroding effective sanctions constructed in response to the #Assad regime’s illegal conduct or diminish its ability to fight #ISIS.

@SHeydemann:

brookings.edu/blog/order-fro… Image

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More from @Charles_Lister

20 Oct
Wow -- This is an extraordinary piece of work by @OSFJustice & @syrian_archive.

*The* definitive guide to #Syria's Scientific Studies & Research Center (SSRC), responsible for #Assad's chemical weapons program:

storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/f353d0… Image
@OSFJustice @syrian_archive The @OSFJustice & @syrian_archive detail the #SSRC's structure & its evolution:

- Jamraya Center

- Branch 450 (for storing, mixing & loading warheads pre-attack), supervised by #Assad, with Units in Safira (416), Khan Abu Al-Shamat (417), Latakia (418) & #Aleppo (419) ImageImage
@OSFJustice @syrian_archive #pt: #Syria's #SSRC cont'd:

- Institute 1000 (Electronics Institute), to produce electronic & computerized systems in a tunnel complex in Jamraya.

- Institute 2000 (Mechanical Institute), whose engineers cooperate with #NorthKorea & #Iran / produced barrel bombs & IRAMs. ImageImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets
24 Aug
All 45 participants - 15 from regime, 15 independents, 15 opposition - were tested before flying to #Geneva.

Quite how 3/45 slipped through the cracks is extraordinary.

If they [presumably] came from #Damascus, it speaks volumes about the crisis there.
Two sources confirm to me all 3 positive cases came from #Damascus.

What's troubling is that all 45 participants had been tested for #COVID *before* traveling to #Geneva & tested again on arrival in #Switzerland.

Somehow 3 positive cases slipped through that @UN-run process.
@UN NEW - Official statement from UN S/E Pedersen's office confirms #Syria's Constitutional Committee sessions in #Geneva are "on hold" after 3/45 participants tested positive for #COVID19. Image
Read 8 tweets
9 Jul
"Life Inside #Syria's al-Hol Camp"

- After interviewing 20 camp residents, @MEI_CTE scholar @vera_mironov delves deep into who lives in al-Hol? How do they relate to #ISIS? Who's escaping? How do they acquire money? & more.

REALLY important work:

mei.edu/publications/l…
@MEI_CTE @vera_mironov According to @vera_mironov's work, only a small minority of al-Hol residents genuinely support #ISIS - many others fake loyalty as a source of financial support (from #ISIS directly or foreign donors).

This drives many expressions of ultra radicalism or fake claims of attacks.
@MEI_CTE @vera_mironov One al-Hol resident claimed to @vera_mironov:

- "What #ISIS enforcement can we talk about, I feel like we're in #Europe here. Many females have sex with male camp workers... We constantly hear about 13-year-old boys having sex with girls or even try to rape other younger boys."
Read 6 tweets
30 Jun
This thread by @hxhassan is worth a read -- #HTS's violent response to #AlQaeda affiliate Huras Al-Din's overreach will have significant consequences.

A few additional notes of my own, to follow:

- This is all entirely consistent with #HTS/#JFS/#Nusra policy since ~2014.
@hxhassan My understanding of events leading up to the all-out fight differs somewhat -- #HTS's arrest of Abu Saloh al-Uzbeki
& Abu Malik al-Talli were *very* inflammatory to HaD. Both were crucial sources of finance & external networks. Plus, they came amid several escalatory accusations:
@hxhassan 1. After Abu Saloh's arrest, rumor swirled that #Turkey's MIT had transferred messages from #Moscow to #HTS, requesting his extradition via #Ankara in exchange for political & economic rewards.

Abu Saloh is accused of coordinating multiple attacks in #Russia in recent yrs.
Read 14 tweets
23 Jun
The intra-jihadi dynamic in #Idlib is rapidly intensifying, as #HTS is seeking to re-assert itself vis-a-vis (1) the opposition, (2) local civil society, (3) #Turkey & (4) increasingly exasperated #AlQaeda-leaning factions.

In doing so, it's revealing its multiple identities.
In recent weeks, we've seen escalatory events:

1. Khaled al-Aruri's death in a US drone strike

2. Formation of the #AlQaeda-leaning 'Stand Firm' ops room

3. #HTS arrest of:
- Sirajideen Makhtarov (Abu Saloh al-Uzbeki)
- Jamal Hassan Zayniya (Abu Malik al-Talli)
- Tauqir Sharif
Weeks ago, #HTS was attempting to [re-]build bridges with #Idlib civil society & now it's cracking down on divisive #AlQaeda loyalists & defecting critics.

Hard not to see the drivers involved here:

- Protect internal unity & regional primacy
- Undermine #AQ
- Message #Turkey
Read 33 tweets
24 Apr
This is a masterclass in research by @Elizrael & @Qussai_jukhadar -- I'm proud to be publishing it on @MiddleEastInst.

- "Ravaged by war, #Syria’s health care system is utterly unprepared for the #COVID19 pandemic."

mei.edu/publications/r…
@Elizrael @Qussai_jukhadar @MiddleEastInst #pt: While most health experts project terrible #COVID19 implications for #Syria, the @WHO insists a "minor outbreak" is more likely.

Why? @WHO's analysis is based on #Wuhan/#China data - which is absurd, given the contrasts in governance, security & healthcare capacity.
@Elizrael @Qussai_jukhadar @MiddleEastInst @WHO #pt: If equating #Syria's capacity to deal w. #COVID19 with #China's wasn't crazy enough, @WHO went further - predicting #Idlib would witness a 50% less infection rate than #Wuhan:

- 2,413 infections
- 121 ICU cases

Out of 4 million people, most in IDP camps w. no services.
Read 6 tweets

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