Unless it's the case of 2 men with the same name, the name Samer Souad is/was an infamous smuggler who became particularly wealthy from fuel smuggling & black market trading in #Idlib.

Initially linked to Jamal Maarouf, some claimed he was linked to #HTS in recent years.
In addition to Samer Souad, locals also claim influential #HTS commander Abdulqader Tahhan (aka Abu Bilal Qadas) was at the targeted location outside #Salqin.

Qadas was given responsibility for Jisr al-Shughour security, following #HTS's recent crackdown on #AlQaeda loyalists.
Here's an image of the late-night meeting held in Jakara outside #Salqin -- reportedly convening #HTS security officials with other local notables.

Casualties likely to be more than the initially cited "2." Image
Update: Additional casualties (killed & wounded) confirmed by sources on the ground indicate this was a significant meeting of #Idlib-based jihadist & otherwise powerful figures:

- Abu al-Abd al-Ashida
- Amer Souad
- Ibrahim Souad
- Hamoud Sahara
- Abu Talha al-Hudayda
Abu al-Abd al-Ashida (pictured) defected from #HTS & was the leader of Tansiqiyya Jihad.

The Souads were very wealthy brothers, controlling much of #Idlib's black market trading.

Sheikh Hamoud Sahara & Abu Talha al-Hudayda also defected from #HTS, forming Kataib al-Fateh. Image
As casualty IDs come in from tonight's U.S. drone strike outside #Salqin (assuming they're accurate) the strike looks to have taken out an array of #HTS rivals & troublesome figures -- defectors, #AlQaeda-aligned critics & corrupt businessmen competing w. #HTS's income potential. Image
One source has told me Tansiqiyya Jihad leader Abu al-Abd al-Ashida is severely wounded after tonight's U.S. drone strike outside #Salqin -- not yet dead. Image
Update: Another source tells me a prominent leader in Huras al-Din was killed in tonight's U.S. drone strike -- but his body was swiftly removed from the scene.

Not clear who it was, yet.
Following tonight's U.S. strike in #Idlib, here's some confirmed (all non-#HTS) figures hit:

- Samer Souad
- Amer Souad
- Ibrahim Souad
- Abu Bilal Qadas
- Hamoud Sahara
- Abu Talha al-Hudayda
- Abu Hafs al-Urduni
- Un-IDd 'Huras al-Din'

Now unconfirmed:

- Abu al-Abd al-Ashida
Update - it seems clear now that tonight's U.S. strike in #Idlib hit a night-time meeting bringing together jihadist factions formed by #HTS defectors -- primarily Kataib al-Fateh, but also Huras al-Din, Tansiqiyya Jihad.

Plus the hosts, #Idlib's Souad black market kingpins.
Back in Oct '17, I wrote about #Turkey's emerging #Idlib strategy, part of which was a campaign of assassinations targeting outspoken hardliners within #HTS who opposed its potential pragmatism & cooperation with #Ankara.

That's clearly evolved since.

warontherocks.com/2017/10/turkey…
I've heard for 2yrs from trusted sources that elements within #HTS were leaking intel on internal critics & #AlQaeda loyalists to #Turkey's MIT intel service. I believe it.

The next level of the claims is controversial -- that those leaks are making their way to CIA & -> drones.
There's no doubt that U.S. intel focus in NW #Syrian is on #AlQaeda loyalists -- they were deemed a greater external plot threat than #ISIS a year ago.

But it's hard not to see the correlation here: #HTS's rivals, critics & business competitors are all dying off in U.S. strikes.
#AlQaeda loyalists & #HTS defectors have been alleging for months now that they're being set up for U.S. strikes by #HTS elements.

Those allegations will reach fever pitch after tonight's strike, which have dealt a big blow to #HTS's jihadist rivals in #Idlib.
Update: U.S. military confirms a strike was conducted against "al-Qaeda in #Syria (AQ-S)" tonight in #Idlib.

These strikes are conducted in joint coordination between JSOC & CIA. Image

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More from @Charles_Lister

20 Oct
Wow -- This is an extraordinary piece of work by @OSFJustice & @syrian_archive.

*The* definitive guide to #Syria's Scientific Studies & Research Center (SSRC), responsible for #Assad's chemical weapons program:

storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/f353d0… Image
@OSFJustice @syrian_archive The @OSFJustice & @syrian_archive detail the #SSRC's structure & its evolution:

- Jamraya Center

- Branch 450 (for storing, mixing & loading warheads pre-attack), supervised by #Assad, with Units in Safira (416), Khan Abu Al-Shamat (417), Latakia (418) & #Aleppo (419) ImageImage
@OSFJustice @syrian_archive #pt: #Syria's #SSRC cont'd:

- Institute 1000 (Electronics Institute), to produce electronic & computerized systems in a tunnel complex in Jamraya.

- Institute 2000 (Mechanical Institute), whose engineers cooperate with #NorthKorea & #Iran / produced barrel bombs & IRAMs. ImageImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets
19 Oct
NEW - My brief analysis on reports of a high-level #Trump admin visit to #Assad's #Damascus in August -- timing, delegation & context raise substantial questions about #Syria policy:

mei.edu/blog/monday-br… Image
NEW - In response to reports of recent #Trump White House visit to #Syria, @SecPompeo says:

- “We will continue to work for the return not only of Austin but every American that’s held... [But] we’re not going to change American policy to do that.”

(i.e. no big deal on table)
@SecPompeo “Working to bring #American hostages home is always a noble endeavor... But our govt must engage in such efforts without legitimizing terrorist groups or absolving people who tortured U.S. citizens.”

- @joshrogin raises some important points/questions:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/… Image
Read 4 tweets
24 Aug
All 45 participants - 15 from regime, 15 independents, 15 opposition - were tested before flying to #Geneva.

Quite how 3/45 slipped through the cracks is extraordinary.

If they [presumably] came from #Damascus, it speaks volumes about the crisis there.
Two sources confirm to me all 3 positive cases came from #Damascus.

What's troubling is that all 45 participants had been tested for #COVID *before* traveling to #Geneva & tested again on arrival in #Switzerland.

Somehow 3 positive cases slipped through that @UN-run process.
@UN NEW - Official statement from UN S/E Pedersen's office confirms #Syria's Constitutional Committee sessions in #Geneva are "on hold" after 3/45 participants tested positive for #COVID19. Image
Read 8 tweets
9 Jul
"Life Inside #Syria's al-Hol Camp"

- After interviewing 20 camp residents, @MEI_CTE scholar @vera_mironov delves deep into who lives in al-Hol? How do they relate to #ISIS? Who's escaping? How do they acquire money? & more.

REALLY important work:

mei.edu/publications/l…
@MEI_CTE @vera_mironov According to @vera_mironov's work, only a small minority of al-Hol residents genuinely support #ISIS - many others fake loyalty as a source of financial support (from #ISIS directly or foreign donors).

This drives many expressions of ultra radicalism or fake claims of attacks.
@MEI_CTE @vera_mironov One al-Hol resident claimed to @vera_mironov:

- "What #ISIS enforcement can we talk about, I feel like we're in #Europe here. Many females have sex with male camp workers... We constantly hear about 13-year-old boys having sex with girls or even try to rape other younger boys."
Read 6 tweets
30 Jun
This thread by @hxhassan is worth a read -- #HTS's violent response to #AlQaeda affiliate Huras Al-Din's overreach will have significant consequences.

A few additional notes of my own, to follow:

- This is all entirely consistent with #HTS/#JFS/#Nusra policy since ~2014.
@hxhassan My understanding of events leading up to the all-out fight differs somewhat -- #HTS's arrest of Abu Saloh al-Uzbeki
& Abu Malik al-Talli were *very* inflammatory to HaD. Both were crucial sources of finance & external networks. Plus, they came amid several escalatory accusations:
@hxhassan 1. After Abu Saloh's arrest, rumor swirled that #Turkey's MIT had transferred messages from #Moscow to #HTS, requesting his extradition via #Ankara in exchange for political & economic rewards.

Abu Saloh is accused of coordinating multiple attacks in #Russia in recent yrs.
Read 14 tweets
23 Jun
The intra-jihadi dynamic in #Idlib is rapidly intensifying, as #HTS is seeking to re-assert itself vis-a-vis (1) the opposition, (2) local civil society, (3) #Turkey & (4) increasingly exasperated #AlQaeda-leaning factions.

In doing so, it's revealing its multiple identities.
In recent weeks, we've seen escalatory events:

1. Khaled al-Aruri's death in a US drone strike

2. Formation of the #AlQaeda-leaning 'Stand Firm' ops room

3. #HTS arrest of:
- Sirajideen Makhtarov (Abu Saloh al-Uzbeki)
- Jamal Hassan Zayniya (Abu Malik al-Talli)
- Tauqir Sharif
Weeks ago, #HTS was attempting to [re-]build bridges with #Idlib civil society & now it's cracking down on divisive #AlQaeda loyalists & defecting critics.

Hard not to see the drivers involved here:

- Protect internal unity & regional primacy
- Undermine #AQ
- Message #Turkey
Read 33 tweets

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