Thread by @_AhmedQuraishi

With this hotline, #India and #China are growing closer, not apart. India has benefited from last year's border skirmishes: It saw the West come to the rescue, saw China ready to deescalate & strengthen pol+mil ties; and the border drama took some heat off #Kashmir crisis.

https://twitter.com/_AhmedQuraishi/status/1365119791569190913

When #China-#India border flared up, conventional thinking in #Pakistan was: this is good. Pak strategic community was largely ecstatic. What was missed missed is that a Chinese push against India hurt the newfound international scrutiny on #Kashmir. Timing hurt Pak interest./2

#India's domestic & #Kashmir policies were never under as much intl scrutiny as they were in 2019-2020. #Pakistan govt failed to seize the opportunity. Islamabad was distracted by #Malaysia summit, anti-#OIC/#KSA/#UAE/#France/#Israel push and toy-projects like IslamophobiaTV. /3

Not only was the international scrutiny of #India on human rights & #Kashmir at its peak in 2019-20, #Pakistan was basking in the glory of a military & diplomatic win after downing an Indian jet, capturing a pilot. Pak Govt failed to exploit these breakthroughs at any level. /4

I received a lot of pushback when I tried in two TV appearances (both with @ShiffaYousafzai+@ovaismangalwala on @humnewspakistan) in June 2020 to temper expectations+excitement over #China-#India clashes, warned about a strategic distraction on #Kashmir/5

Back to the #China-#India border tensions in 2020, the way they were mostly read in #Pakistan highlights how the policy mindset in #Islamabad is focused more on over-analysis than on seizing opportunities. /6

@threadreaderapp unroll