A consecutive third 'Night of the Knives' in #Pakistan's capital, #Islamabad. The city truly outdoes itself in ruthless politics as a cornered & paranoid PM Imran Khan fights for political survival, scared of his own shadow & party, #PTI, which he built but can't trust now. /1
A cornered Prime Minister Imran Khan is now so paranoid & suspicious of his own party that he banned his lawmakers from leaving the city, forced them to have breakfast with him first thing today, & warned them in a letter published by opposition leader!/2
So bad is #PTI's ability to defend its prime minister on the eve of a vote of confidence in Parliament that opposition leader Maryam Nawaz Sharif embarrasses the PM by publishing an internal party letter that reeks of paranoia. Better media management could have preempted this./3
Further damaging the reputation of Prime Minister Imran Khan and his #PTI are the persistent information or rumors released by the opposition that indicate the PM is bartering key posts in the government & the Senate for assured votes from allies. /4
The opposition plays a mastestroke by boycotting today's vote of confidence that Prime Minister Imran Khan volunteered to take. This will ensure that the political crisis continues and not end with today's vote. /5
Barring a major surprise (like his lawmakers openly rebelling--unlikely, but possible) Prime Minister Imran Khan is expected to get the vote today (Will he make 174 votes like he did in 2018?). A bigger question remains: Wil he keep his weak & mostly incompetent cabinet? /6
In case you enjoyed this Nights of the Knives series from #Islamabad#Pakistan, you might want to check what I wrote about the last two nights: /7
#Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan secures a vote of confidence in Parliament, as expected, with an impressive 178 vote tally, a much needed symbolic win for a party divided by internal suspicions. The opposition succeeds in dampening the win by boycotting the vote. /8
Chief Minister Usman Buzdar's seat is on the line now after #PrimeMinisterImranKhan succeeds in securing the #VoteOfConfidence in Parliament. Could be a heavy price.
Embattled PM Imran Khan hints he might lose office in a disjointed live address to the nation where he digressed into a long lecture on poverty+corruption & linked a rebellion against him within the ruling #PTI to a heroic struggle for #Pakistan's future/1
Imran Khan appeared incoherent and angry, blamed opposition politicians for a rebellion targeting him personally from within his #PTI party. He offered little details on this conspiracy, vowed to resist whether he remains in power or not. /2
Imran Khan's TV address came as his govt moved a #VoteOfConfidence in Parliament from today to Saturday as chatter increased that he's unsure of the situation, has asked his aides to do the homework to avoid surprises, & likely banned party lawmakers front leaving the capital./3
Meanwhile, in #Pakistan, the capital #Islamabad undergoes a Night of the Knives, with conspiracie, boxes of cash exchanged, daggers out, as Prime Minister Imran Khan fights for political survival in today's #SenateElections2021. A SC judge on record: "We're living in a gutter!"/1
Basically, the run-up to #SenateElections2021 exposed PM Khan govt's weaknesses. He spent the last 48 hours scurrying around to secure his base of lawmakers with intelligence reports suggesting some sort of a mini-rebellion. So he moved fast. /2
A war of leaked videos ensued (vote-buying deal making). The viral clips embarrassed opponents but also deterred shady #PTI lawmakers. Khan's party even struck secret deals with political enemies to adjust seats, where possible. /3
Today, #Israel🇮🇱 has more #Arab allies than #Turkey🇹🇷 or #Iran🇮🇷. Premature to write off moderate Arabs. That could be what #Obama administration wanted by supporting extremist takeover in Middle East. The opposite has happened. Now there is a push back. Israel & Arabs favor it.
Erdogan's charisma, Islamist allies, & Turkey's soft power make him a key player. Iran's expansionism is based on weaponizing non-Iranian Shia communities. Both examples represent forms of religious extremism. Israel & Gulf offer a new model for the future of the Middle East.
#Turkey is a #NATO ally, a leading #Muslim success story as long as it steers clear of extremism. Half of #Iran cabinet are #US graduates, but it's model is not attractive in the Middle East, promoted by shady money and guns. A third model is presented by #AbrahamAccords.
Destabilization by #Israel+#SaudiArabia+#UAE in the Middle East is equal to the destabilization by #Iran. Is it?
I listened to @PeterBeinart on @FareedZakaria's show. He used this contrast to justify rejecting the idea of a #JCPOA rethink to include Iran's malign activities. /1
Are #Israel#KSA#UAE destabilizing the Middle East equally to or more than #Iran? This juxtaposition is used by Iran govt and sympathizers who suggest Tehran's wide network of proxies & operations in the region is not unique. Rather, it's normal. /2
Keeping #JCPOA intact is a legitimate goal but not on the basis of a fallacy. Moral and political equivalency that @PeterBeinart suggested [b/w #KSA/#Israel/#UAE and #Iran] is worth discussing. In short bursts, just key points, for the sake of informing. /3
A foreign policy expert from #Iraq proposes a regional axis made up of #KSA#Egypt#Pakistan#Turkey to balance #Biden policies that apparently mark a return to Obama-era antagonism toward America's traditional allies.
This sparks a long overdue debate on why #America in the last part of #Bush admin and throughout #Obama years pushed its allies under the bus (#Egypt#Pakistan#KSA#Gulf#Turkey) & allowed hostile IRGC-QF militias to circle #Israel. /2
There is no logical answer. And if this theory initially seemed farfetched and conspiratorial, some #Biden admin signals showed it wants to put #America back on the same track of collision with its traditional Mideast allies, including Israel. /3
#Pakistan & #Egypt revive stalled ties. Pakistani foreign minister meets President Al-Sisi. Agreement to launch high-level political consultations next month. #PakMilitary will participate in drills in Egypt in summer. /2
#Pakistan & #Egypt are often considered two players with imp roles in ensuring #Gulf stability, along regional & intl partners; can help in Mideast peace, in Yemen, in fighting extremism & extremist groups. These are recurring themes in discussions: /3