Thread by @jseldin

NEW: US intelligence community/National Intelligence Council warns of "increasingly fractured" communities "as people seek security with like-minded groups" per just released #GlobalTrends2040 report "A more Contested World"

"The #COVID19 pandemic has reminded the world of its fragility & demonstrated the inherent risks of high levels of interdependence" per @ODNI_NIC, predicting "more intense challenges & cascading global challenges"

"These challenges will repeatedly test the resilience and adaptability of communities, states, and the international system, often exceeding the capacity of existing systems and models" per @ODNI_NIC

#climatechange, disease, financial crises & technology disruptions "will produce wide-spread strains on states & societies, as well as shocks that could be catastrophic" per @ODNI_NIC

#ClimateChange, environmental degradation "likely to exacerbate food & water insecurity for poor countries, increase migration, precipitate new health challenges" per @ODNI_NIC "Continued pressure for global migration...will strain both origin and destination countries"

Another warning - the "hyper-connected information environment... has divided & fragmented people & countries" per @ODNI_NIC

Report says we we increasingly see "a world that is both inextricably bound by connectivity & fragmenting in different directions"

More: @ODNI_NIC sees "an increasing mismatch at all levels between challenges & needs w/the systems & organizations to deal w/them"

"The int'l system...is poorly set up to address the compounding global challenges" it says, pointing to uneven #COVID19 response as example

"Old orders—from institutions to norms to types of governance—are strained & in some cases, eroding" per @ODNI_NIC "And actors at every level are struggling to agree on new models..."

US intelligence warns societies are "at risk of greater fracturing"

"Politics within states are likely to grow more volatile & contentious, & no region, ideology, or governance system seems immune" per @ODNI_NIC report

.@ODNI_NIC warns of a "volatile & confrontational geopolitical environment"

"States will face a combination of highly destructive & precise conventional & strategic weapons, #cyber activity targeting civilian & military infrastructure, & a confusing #disinformation environment"

US intelligence report cautions next 20 years could be a boon for #terrorism - "likely to exacerbate the political, economic, & social grievances terrorists have long exploited to gain supporters as well as safe havens" per @ODNI_NIC #GlobalTrends2040

"Global jihadist groups are likely to be the largest, most persistent transnational threat as well as a threat in their home regions" per @ODNI_NIC, due in part to "large areas of ungoverned or poorly governed territory, notably in #Africa, the #Middle East & #SouthAsia"

#Iran also could pose greater danger

"Efforts to solidify a Shia 'axis of resistance' ... might increase the threat of asymmetric attacks on US, #Israel|i, #Saudi, & others’ interests in the #MiddleEast"

As for "rightwing" or "leftwing" extremists, @ODNI_NIC report says they "may revive in Europe, Latin America, North America, and perhaps other regions"

Terrorists will seek #WMD, #bioweapons & #cyber capabilities, per @ODNI_NIC

But most attacks "probably will continue to use weapons similar to those currently available—such as small arms & improvised explosives bcs these are generally sufficient, accessible & reliable"

.@ODNI_NIC report predicts some countries facing terrorist insurgencies "may choose to forge non-aggression pacts that leave terrorists free to organize within their borders and others compelled to submit to terrorist rule over significant parts of their territory"