A 2nd theme of today's weather observations is the awesome power of atmospheric water transfer.
Here we can see how a stream of water originating in the Central African Republic is fueling storms in Saudi Arabia & India.

Today's forecasts follow.
The latest GFS North Africa 10-Day Rain forecast.
Here we see atmospheric water leaving north across the Sahara for Europe this afternoon.
And here we see the booster engine for the flow of atmospheric water to India, in the highlands of Ethiopia and the deserts of the Sudan.

It seems likely that the rains will reach Khartoum soon.
May 2nd, 10-day accumulated rain forecasts, for Ethiopia, from the ECMWF, GFS and KMA models.
#Sudan #SouthSudan #Ethiopia #GERD #Africa #HornOfAfrica #DesertRain
And a couple of fresh @Arab_Storms eyewitness videos of #ArabianStorms the first from near Makkah.
And the second @Arab_Storms #ArabianStorms tweet contains an eyewitness video showing the formation of part of the storm in the attached animation. [I suspect Zoom.Earth from @zoom_earth incorporates some game design AI.]
May 2nd, 10-day accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from GFS, ECMWF, CMC, & KMA weather models.

@Arab_Storms
#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Levant #Jordan #Sudan #UAE #Iraq #Iran #Syria #Kuwait #GERD #NileBasin #HornOfAfrica #DesertRain

الله أعلم
Here is how the storm mentioned in the @ArabStorms tweet above developed over the course of the afternoon, eventually covering an area 415,000 Sq Kms.
May 2nd, 3 day accumulated rain forecasts (to Wednesday at Midnight), for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC & KMA weather models.

@Arab_Storms
#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
Finally, three May 2nd, ultra long-range, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, GEFS (16-day) and KMA (12 day) models.
#ArabianStorms #Ramadan

[NOTE: CMC & KMA long range models have been closer to observations than GFS and ECMWF]

الله أعلم

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More from @althecat

4 May
<< Baltic Faceoff >>

These two storms now look fairly evenly matched.

The storm on the left (over the UK) is powered by the North Atlantic, while the one on the right over Russia is powered by the #WestAfricanMonsoon

& bottom left over the Med. a spoiler is arriving.
I didn't see this earlier but the marked triangular bit in the top left of this image is the reason the UK Storm didn't manage to push the Russian Storm off the mat.

That's a jet of airborn water that has somehow managed to find its way both into & out of the Arctic. Image
The Nordic interloper is there at the beginning of the sequence before the sun sets.

These four images show the sequence of events. ImageImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets
4 May
I have been watching these two storms, one over the UK (on the left) and one over Russia (on the right) for the last 2.5 hours. They are both big storms.

In that time the smaller UK storm has moved 142.2 kms closer while the Russian one has moved 32.16 kms away. Image
What I am curious about is whether they might merge with each other, and if they do, what it will look like [zoom.earth/#view=55.4,17.…]. They used to be quite a long way away from each other, and the forecasts said they would stay that way.
The much larger Russian one ought to be long gone by now. At least that's what all the computer model's said.
But it has barely moved in the last 36 hours, which is unusual for a storm. Back then it looked more like a whale. [zoom.earth/#view=54.1,36.…] Image
Read 5 tweets
3 May
For me this was a very sad discussion. The first step towards democracy is to hold an election. Unfortunately to do so can be dangerous. But so is not taking that first step.
The path to reaching difficult agreements requires sacrifice. The path to reconciliation requires giving others the benefit of the doubt. And the path to peace requires renouncing violence.
And the path to democracy requires peaceful acceptance of the result of elections.

The outcome of Ethiopia's first election is unlikely to satisfy everyone, and probably won't satisfy a majority. Most elections don't. But it is the 1st step to take to become a democratic nation.
Read 4 tweets
3 May
Today's #ArabianStorms were mainly over the Arabian Gulf. #Qatar #Bahrain and the in the middle of the gulf. And the day also saw a storm begin before dawn.

Today's #Ethiopia and #MiddleEast forecasts follow:
The latest CMC and GFS North Africa 10-Day Rain forecasts.
Today two streams of monsoon energy appeared to come together over the south end to send a stream of atmospheric moisture to Oman and on to India.
Read 13 tweets
3 May
A Tale of Two Storms.

In pictures.

[Check out #WestAfricaWaterPlume & @althecat for the words....]
Read 40 tweets
3 May
A side by side comparison of the impact on Northern Europe of the...

April 30-ongoing #WestAfricaWaterPlume event (left)

...VS the...

April 17-19 #WestAfricaWaterPlume event (right).
The current plume event has a far larger, longer plume. The area affected by the resulting low pressure system is far larger - and vastly more populated.

So far I have found one news report: informpskov.ru/news/353795.ht…

#Россия #Потоп #РоссияПотоп
Unfortunately its just a preview.
Read 4 tweets

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