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Lance Roberts Profile picture
@LanceRoberts
May 14, 2021 • 7 tweets • 10 min read • Read on X
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#MacroView
#NFIB data says we are only in a #recovery, not an #economic expansion.
While the NFIB data doesn't get much #media attention, it should as it tells you much about what is really happening in the #economy.
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib…
Reason I pay attention to #NFIB
Sept 2019 - Data rings alarm bells on #recession.
April 2020 - Data says recession arrived.
May 2020 - Data says #economic recovery not as strong as media suggests.
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib… Image
If businesses were expecting a massive surge in “#pentup” #demand, they would prepare for it. Such includes #planning to increase #capex to meet expected demand. Unfortunately, those expectations peaked in 2018 and are dropping back to the March 2020 lows.
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib… Image
When it comes to #headlines versus #reality there is a major difference between:
- Yes, I am thinking about hiring in the future, and
- Actually committing the #capital and #resources to do it if you aren't sure about future #demand.
#ProblemWithStimulus
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib… Image
Small businesses are not concerned about #LaborCosts as much as #Biden hiking #taxes.
Higher taxes = less #profit = less #employment and #wage suppression.
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib… Image
Despite the surge in #headlines #retailsales numbers, #smallbusiness aren't seeing it, nor are they expecting to as #stimulus evaporates.
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib… ImageImage
If you are betting on the #smallcap trade to continue on expectations of an #economicboom, you may want to reconsider.
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib… Image

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More from @LanceRoberts

Lance Roberts Profile picture
Nov 4, 2023
The #BullBearReport is out!
We have suggested a #rally was coming as #markets reached oversold levels. That #rally came with a vengeance following the #FOMC meeting. With #rate #hikes on pause, the #bulls bought everything from #stocks to #bonds. But will the rally last?
Given that the #Fed did little to talk up projections of further #rate hikes, the #market took this as meaning the Fed is likely done hiking rates.
The break of the 200-DMA was reversed on Thursday, and the 50-DMA was breached on Friday. Those actions set the market up for a rally into year-end.

Image
#Sentiment remains negative despite the #rally. Such will provide fuel for a rally into year-end.
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-into-yea…
Image
Read 6 tweets
Lance Roberts Profile picture
Jul 1, 2023
The #BullBearReport is out!
Last week, we suggested a #market #rally was likely after the #correction to the 20-DMA. That rally took the market to a new 52-week. However, #complacency has become elevated. What is the $VIX telling us now?
realinvestmentadvice.com/complacency-se…
With the #market back to more overbought levels, some #correction is needed to provide a better risk/reward entry point. Using Fibonacci retracement levels, investors should consider adding exposure at 4250 down to the 200-DMA.
https://t.co/mfrneEKHN5realinvestmentadvice.com/complacency-se…
#Investors have become very #bullish on the #market as #FOMO returns. #Volatility has dropped below average, #calloptions are surging, and #sentiment is rising.
https://t.co/4aTJrjYTQnrealinvestmentadvice.com/complacency-se…




Read 7 tweets
Lance Roberts Profile picture
Jan 17, 2023
Today's #blog covers why the #pain #trade is likely higher over the next few weeks as #sentiment improves and too much money is offside.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-pain-trade…
#Bullish optimism is building around:
- #Fed cutting rates
- #Economy will avoid #recession
- #Employment remains strong.
- #Earnings have corrected enough
Risk to that view remains a recession.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-pain-trade…
It is called the “#paintrade” because it is the opposite of how #investors are currently positioned. Investor sentiment remains historically #bearish despite improvement since the October lows.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-pain-trade…
Read 5 tweets
Lance Roberts Profile picture
Dec 13, 2022
Today's #blog is part 2 of our outlook for 2023. Why you will want to own #bonds in the first half and #stocks in the 2nd.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-2023-inves…
The #inversion of 80% of the 10 #economically important yield curves also suggests a recession is likely. The inverted yield curves play an essential role in our 2023 portfolio positioning.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-2023-inves…
So far, investors have mostly overlooked the rate shock impact on the real economy. However, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes have collapsed the composite Economic Composite Index and the 6-month rate of change of the Leading Economic Index.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-2023-inves…
Read 5 tweets
Lance Roberts Profile picture
Nov 8, 2022
For an #economy to flourish, and create #prosperity for the majority of participants, there must be a strong and vibrant #middleclass. Today's #blog digs into the disappearance of the economic engine.
realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i…
The shrinking of the middle class is accompanied by an increase in the share of adults in the upper-income tier from 14% in 1971 to 21% in 2021. At the same time, there was an increase in the share who are in the lower-income tier, from 25% to 29%.
realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i… Image
Most importantly, and what is often not included in the analysis, is the standard of living gets “paid for” on an “after-tax” basis. When we include taxation, it becomes clear that roughly 80% of America is failing to support the “middle-class” lifestyle.
realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i… Image
Read 6 tweets
Lance Roberts Profile picture
Oct 11, 2022
Today's #blogpost discusses #Grantham's recent comments on the #SuperBubble's final act. Is that the case, or is this time different?
realinvestmentadvice.com/superbubbles-t…
We find ourselves at the crossroads where #markets and #fundamental realities meet. From this point, the outlook for equities over the next 9-12 months is more #bearish than #bullish.
realinvestmentadvice.com/superbubbles-t… Image
Notably, the “difference this time” is the #Fed is aggressively tightening #monetary #policy to slow economic growth and reduce demand-driven inflation. The consequence is negative concerning both #economic and #earnings growth.
realinvestmentadvice.com/superbubbles-t… Image
Read 4 tweets

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