Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #wage

Most recents (18)

#NFIB data says we are only in a #recovery, not an #economic expansion.
While the NFIB data doesn't get much #media attention, it should as it tells you much about what is really happening in the #economy.…
Reason I pay attention to #NFIB
Sept 2019 - Data rings alarm bells on #recession.
April 2020 - Data says recession arrived.
May 2020 - Data says #economic recovery not as strong as media suggests.… Image
If businesses were expecting a massive surge in “#pentup#demand, they would prepare for it. Such includes #planning to increase #capex to meet expected demand. Unfortunately, those expectations peaked in 2018 and are dropping back to the March 2020 lows.… Image
Read 7 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 09/12/2020…
Biodiversity scientists must fight the creeping rise of extinction denial | Nature Ecology & Evolution…

#biodiversity #extinction #denial #ecology
COVID vaccine, treatment trials create monkey shortage for science…

#trials #COVID19 #vaccine #monkey #shortage #consequence
Read 11 tweets
The #deficit #myth #deficitmyth by @StephanieKelton #MMT modern monetary theory
Myth N. 1: The #state should budget like a #household
#RealityCheck : unlike a household, a #SovereignNation, which owns its national #centralbank, issues the #currency it spends
Myth N. 2: #deficit is evidence of #overspending
#RealityCheck: look to #inflation for evidence of over spending
The purpose of #taxes is not to pay for #government expenditures but to help rebalancing the #wealth distribution #MMT
Read 56 tweets
The sheer magnitude of the moves in many #economic #data points in recent months has overshadowed the nuances of those reports. For instance, the June @ism non-manufacturing index came in at 57.1 yesterday, a record 11.7-point gain and 7.1 points greater than expectations. Image
And when we look at the #ISM survey report of #commodity prices and what’s in short supply, there are many items that aren’t surprising: cleaning products, disinfectants and hand sanitizer are all up in #price and in short #supply.
Much more interesting, however, is the fact that #labor for #construction and subcontractors is back to being cited as in short #supply
Read 5 tweets
Received a call from Mr @HardeepSPuri, Hon Min of State for Commerce and Industry, GOI today afternoon. Had a long discussion with him on the steps to Revive the Economy and submitted my inputs for his consideration. (1/n)
Following were my inputs:
1. All announcements made as part of #AtmaNirbharBharat Package were about liquidity infusion & making cash available through Financial Institutions. The focus on demand side is lacking. Govt has to put money in people's hands. (2/n)
2. Govt can categorize sectors into 'minor affected', 'medium affected' & 'severely affected'. Help can be extend to a particular sector either in the form of financial or taxation or others forms based on the category under which a sector falls. (3/n)
Read 18 tweets
The trend of strong labor #market growth continued apace in January, with a 225,000 payroll gain in the #JobsReport, and a 0.25% month-over-month rise in average hourly #earnings, bringing #wage growth back to 3.12% year-over-year.
And despite some noise under the hood of the #JobsReport, due to annual revisions, we think #labor markets remain solid. Image
Of particular note, we’ve been impressed by hiring at top #tech firms, which underscores the fact that while disruptive to many industries, technological #innovation also creates a great many #jobs.
Read 5 tweets
We learned last week that core #goods #prices continue to remain weak, and indeed over the longer run they’ve witnessed #disinflation.
Meanwhile, while #inflation could see some support alongside a pickup in #wage growth, we think this linkage is much weaker than many suggest: higher wages don’t create meaningfully higher inflation in this era, and corporate #CFOs are beginning to recognize it. Image
Indeed, we think #inflation is more likely to be driven a bit higher by the weaker #USD, and perhaps a higher monetary base (potential velocity gains) and not so much from #wage increases.
Read 3 tweets
Overall, despite modest disappointment in goods-producing sector hiring (outside of construction, where warmer weather and solid #housing sector dynamics kept #job growth strong), the #employment report has become dependably positive in recent years. Image
That’s particularly the case given the 23 million new #jobs that have been created over the past decade, the very tight #labor market conditions and a late-Thanksgiving Day holiday that can often lead to flattering November #payroll data at the expense of December. Image
This hiring dynamic, alongside slowly increasing levels of average hourly earnings (not the traditional #wage pressure for this point in the #economic cycle), suggests that the #Fed’s stance on full employment and price stability appears to be in a good place today.
Read 3 tweets
In the context of slowing U.S. #economic growth and moderately higher #inflation figures (at least through the year’s first half), alongside political risks both domestic and international, we think the 10-Year U.S. #Treasury yield is unlikely to exceed 2.25% this year.
And while modestly higher #inflation may be spurred by base-effects and a weaker #USD in 2020, as well as by #oil prices that could trade near the higher end of our 2020 estimated $50 to $75/bbl range for a time, the structural drivers of lower prices remain intact, in our view. Image
In 2020, the average U.S. labor #market growth rate will likely be slower than last year’s average, but simultaneously, #wage growth should be higher in 2020 than it was in 2019 and the #Fed will remain on hold through the year, barring serious economic shock.
Read 3 tweets
The National Commission for Enterprises in the #UnorganisedSector was set up in 2004 as an advisory body & a watchdog for the #informal sector. This NCEUS report reviews #labour #laws & #SocialSecurity systems that apply to #workers in unorganised sectors. ImageImageImageImage
It observes that while existing laws have some provisions for conditions of #work for certain workers, there is no comprehensive legal framework for the “basic and minimum conditions of work” for unorganised sector workers.
Therefore, it proposes comprehensive & protective laws for agricultural & non-agricultural workers in the unorganised sector that will regulate conditions of #work, #SocialSecurity, #welfare and #livehood promotion.
Read 16 tweets
Today’s much anticipated #employment report came close to consensus at 136K jobs gained, 114K of which were private sector, although #wage rate gains disappointed a bit with average hourly earnings declining over the month, the #unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, a 50-year low.
While recent survey data has appeared more disappointing (ISM) and that warrants careful observation, we like to focus on hard data: #payroll figures represent what companies are actually doing and provide some clarity on an otherwise ambiguous set of #economic signals.
We think the @federalreserve is likely to move rates lower at least another time this year to continue its efforts to sustain the #economic cycle. The #Fed will probably seek to trim the policy rate range another 25 bps in October, leaving December open for debate.
Read 3 tweets
Named after #MahatmaGandhi, the #MGNREGA, one of the largest #publicworks programme in the world, came about because of inadequate govt schemes that weren't meeting the demand for #rural #employment.… Image
Recognizing there was persistent #unemployment in rural areas – and no #SocialSecurity mechanism for the #poor, the #MGNREGA aims to provide #wage #employment to poor #rural households, strengthen rural #livelihoods, and ensure #socialinclusion. #GandhiAt150
The Act guarantees that state govts will set up schemes to provide no less than 100 days of #employment in one financial year to every rural household whose adult members volunteer to do unskilled manual #work.
Read 15 tweets
Today’s #payroll data, coming in at 263k, with decent wage gains, was very strong overall and continues to underscore that there is more dynamism to the U.S. #economy today than many appear willing to admit.
Indeed, we’ve witnessed a broad array of #wage growth measures accelerate since 2014, to levels that cannot be considered excessively low. Image
In theory, lack of labor market slack should lead to slowing #job growth going forward, and while it ultimately may be the case, the #labor market expansions since 1960 suggest that even at full employment job growth can continue, as long as economic growth holds up.
Read 3 tweets
#Panel discussion on "What is the new normal for #CESEE?"
@wiiw_news #wiiwSpringSeminar
Vizek: "Very strong public sector, lot of informal economy. Croatia experienced slow growth before, so new normal not really new. But political willingness to reform very low."
Zubovic: positive trends in #Serbia: - rapid #growth in #IT sector over last 3/4 years w/ 3% to 6% share of GDP - Huge Chinese #investments, but with #externalities - Macroeconomic #stability, no fiscal #deficit anymore - foreign #debt declining - Substantial growth of #GDP
Read 14 tweets
Today’s #CPI was a bit firmer on the core measures, and a bit weaker on a top-line basis, but overall today’s data reinforces the fact that the #Fed was right to pause policy rate hiking, and that a more data-dependent and cautious approach is precisely what’s required.
The fact is that the Fed isn’t anywhere close to being threatened by any persistent above-target #inflation pressures, and hence we think the #FOMC will continue to remain patiently on hold until inflation becomes durably greater than targeted levels (and accelerating). Image
Finally, while we’re not concerned about #wage growth bleeding into higher generalized #inflation, we believe the solid wage growth we’re seeing for middle- and lower-income households is vitally important to maintain if the economic cycle is to be extended.
Read 3 tweets
Today’s #inflation data came in roughly as expected, with headline #CPI readings dipping to -0.1 on the month and printing at 1.9% year-over-year, slowing due to sharply falling #energy prices.
With this moderating inflation in mind, the #Fed has no reason to unsettle financial conditions further, or risk stunting growth in the broader economy, with additional policy rate hikes. The central bank should pause its rate hiking to take stock of the #economic situation.
Further, while some argue that accelerating #wage gains will feed into higher levels of #inflation than many anticipate, but we generally find this argument unconvincing and believe the wage gains are a big positive for households. Image
Read 3 tweets
Today we release our annual @wiiw_news Autumn #Forecast Report, with macroeconomic projections for #CESEE out to 2020. Below, a thread on the highlights 1/13
#Growth still looks quite good for most, notable upgrades this time for #Poland, #Serbia, #Hungary. But downgrades for several #EU members, plus #Turkey, #Macedonia and #Belarus. 2/13
Over the #forecast period we expect best growth performance in #EUCEE and #WesternBalkans, although both will slow by 2020. Outlook for #CIS & #Ukraine weaker. 3/13
Read 14 tweets
The Sept. #inflation print came in below consensus due to “one-time” factors, yet many fail to identify structural forces, such as the state of #tech-driven goods deflation and demographic trends that hold back aggregate prices. Look forward to next month’s one-time factors! Image
While the inflationary impact of the Sept. round of #tariffs won’t be negligible, it shouldn’t add more than 0.3% to core inflation and likely won’t persist beyond 12-18 months. Washing machines tariffs this year provide a reference point: Core #CPI only rose 0.03% as a result. Image
While some concerns have been raised about #wage inflation, it is at least heartening to see that wages are rising most for those in need, a different pattern from most of the last decade, and a small step towards closing the #income imbalances in our country. Image
Read 3 tweets

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