Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #wage
Most recents (24)
As was widely expected, the @federalreserve today halted the most aggressive policy rate #HikingCycle since 1980, leaving the Fed Funds range unchanged at 5.0% to 5.25%, a level that appears clear to us to be finally having an impact on the #economy.
We think today’s actions represent a “Hawkish skip,” which implies that #policy makers are seeking more #data before potentially hiking rates again in July, or September.
For our part, we think #ChairPowell’s comments at the press conference made it clear that the #FOMC is seeking to balance increasingly restrictive monetary policy with the high degree of uncertainty around the tightening of #CreditConditions…
We’ve seen the pace of #payroll gains decelerate to roughly the monthly trend pace from the last expansion; consensus has been waiting for this moment and expected a 195,000 job gain in May, but the data printed considerably stronger at 339,000 #jobs gained.
The three-month moving average of #nonfarm payrolls sits at 283,000, down from 334,000 jobs at the start of the year, but what the #LaborMarket imbalance needs is more supply and more slack.
The #unemployment rate ticked up to 3.65%, close to its 12-month average level, and average hourly #earnings (a volatile figure) gained 0.33% month-over-month and 4.3% on a year-over-year basis.
Today’s #JobsReport was a clear indication that #LaborMarket dynamics are softening. For example, the 3-mo. moving average of nonfarm #payroll growth sits at 247k jobs, after a higher-than-expected print of 223k jobs for Dec, in contrast to 2022’s average mo. #job gain of 375k.
மூலதனத்திற்கும் கூலிக்கும் இடையே முற்றும் முரண்பாடு!🧵
சர்வதேச தொழிலாளர் அமைப்பு (ILO) சமீபத்தில் "Global Wage Report 2022-2023" & "Asia-Pacific Employment and Social Outlook 2022: Rethinking sectoral strategies for a human-centred future of work" என்ற இரண்டு அறிக்கைகளை #wage
சர்வதேச தொழிலாளர் அமைப்பு (ILO) சமீபத்தில் "Global Wage Report 2022-2023" & "Asia-Pacific Employment and Social Outlook 2022: Rethinking sectoral strategies for a human-centred future of work" என்ற இரண்டு அறிக்கைகளை #wage
வெளியிட்டது இது தொற்றுநோய்க்கு பிந்தைய உலகளாவிய வேலைவாய்ப்பு சூழ்நிலையை சுட்டிக்காட்டுகிறது.
"ஊதியம்" என்ற வார்த்தையானது, ஊதியம் பெற்ற வருடாந்திர விடுப்பு மற்றும் ஊதியத்துடன் கூடிய நோய்வாய்ப்பட்ட விடுப்பு போன்ற வேலை செய்யாத நேரம் (அறிக்கைக்காக மாதாந்திரம்) குறிப்பிட்ட காலத்தில்
"ஊதியம்" என்ற வார்த்தையானது, ஊதியம் பெற்ற வருடாந்திர விடுப்பு மற்றும் ஊதியத்துடன் கூடிய நோய்வாய்ப்பட்ட விடுப்பு போன்ற வேலை செய்யாத நேரம் (அறிக்கைக்காக மாதாந்திரம்) குறிப்பிட்ட காலத்தில்
பணியாளர்கள் பெறும் வழக்கமான போனஸ் உட்பட மொத்த ஊதியம் என வரையறுக்கப்பட்டது.
வாழ்க்கைச் செலவு நெருக்கடிக்கான கொள்கை விருப்பங்கள் மற்றும் பதில்களின் தொகுப்பை அறிக்கை பரிந்துரைக்கிறது.
வாழ்க்கைச் செலவு நெருக்கடிக்கான கொள்கை விருப்பங்கள் மற்றும் பதில்களின் தொகுப்பை அறிக்கை பரிந்துரைக்கிறது.
The headline #inflation data today moderated a bit on the back of falling #gasoline prices, but it’s still running at a worryingly high rate.
Over time, we think the slowdown in #economic growth, the continuation of the @federalreserve’s assertive #HikingCycle and the possibility of resolution with several persistent supply chain issues should influence broad #inflation lower.
Still, while #CorePCE inflation (the #Fed’s favored measure) is likely to moderate in the coming months, it’ll still remain well-above the Fed’s 2% #inflation target.
@bankofengland raises rates by 50bps today and forecasts nflation to 🏔13.1% by end-2022.
It looks like the bank is forecasting a mild #recession with #GDP growth *falling* by 1.5% in 2023.
This is accompanied by a modest rise in the #unemployment rate to 5.75% in 2024.
A 🧵
It looks like the bank is forecasting a mild #recession with #GDP growth *falling* by 1.5% in 2023.
This is accompanied by a modest rise in the #unemployment rate to 5.75% in 2024.
A 🧵
As I read through the @bankofengland report, I will tweet my commentary here.
Taken from the report:
A #recession2022 is the Bank’s base case forecast.😣
“The United Kingdom is now projected to enter recession from the fourth quarter of this year.”
bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-polic…
Taken from the report:
A #recession2022 is the Bank’s base case forecast.😣
“The United Kingdom is now projected to enter recession from the fourth quarter of this year.”
bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-polic…
“The changes Ofgem has announced to the method for updating the household energy price cap are also expected to push up CPI inflation in the near term…”
This was a worry I set out yesterday.
This was a worry I set out yesterday.
Our paper is out!
Current #adaptation projects do not automatically enhance #gender equality | need to be intentionally brought in at planning & implementation stages.
23authors|9sectors|17739 literature|countless meetings
Delighted to have brainstormed👇figure with @Joyashree9
Current #adaptation projects do not automatically enhance #gender equality | need to be intentionally brought in at planning & implementation stages.
23authors|9sectors|17739 literature|countless meetings
Delighted to have brainstormed👇figure with @Joyashree9
Embedding gender considerations and facilitating #women’s participation in project design and implementation along with #inclusive #policies, training, information access, planning, and monitoring is needed
Additional course correction for #SDG5 is needed.
Our #SDG5plus (SDG5+) approach takes into consideration #intersectionality and gender aspects beyond #women alone, & can help #adaptation actions move towards meeting #genderequality and other #climatejustice goals.
Our #SDG5plus (SDG5+) approach takes into consideration #intersectionality and gender aspects beyond #women alone, & can help #adaptation actions move towards meeting #genderequality and other #climatejustice goals.
The #JobsReport came in at 372,000 jobs gained, the #unemployment rate at 3.6%, which was coupled with #wage growth of 5.1% year-over-year: all solid numbers in a historic context.
Still, when taken in the context of much of the #economic data coming in, last week’s #employment report reemphasized two key tenets of the economy and consequently of #investment markets: 1) the U.S., and indeed the global economy, is tangibly slowing…
…and 2) we are probably past the #employment peak and will likely witness #LaborMarket slowing in the back half of the year.
#MacroView
#NFIB data says we are only in a #recovery, not an #economic expansion.
While the NFIB data doesn't get much #media attention, it should as it tells you much about what is really happening in the #economy.
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib…
#NFIB data says we are only in a #recovery, not an #economic expansion.
While the NFIB data doesn't get much #media attention, it should as it tells you much about what is really happening in the #economy.
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib…
Reason I pay attention to #NFIB
Sept 2019 - Data rings alarm bells on #recession.
April 2020 - Data says recession arrived.
May 2020 - Data says #economic recovery not as strong as media suggests.
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib…
Sept 2019 - Data rings alarm bells on #recession.
April 2020 - Data says recession arrived.
May 2020 - Data says #economic recovery not as strong as media suggests.
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib…
If businesses were expecting a massive surge in “#pentup” #demand, they would prepare for it. Such includes #planning to increase #capex to meet expected demand. Unfortunately, those expectations peaked in 2018 and are dropping back to the March 2020 lows.
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib…
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib…
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 09/12/2020 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/09/12/dai…
Biodiversity scientists must fight the creeping rise of extinction denial | Nature Ecology & Evolution
nature.com/articles/s4155…
#biodiversity #extinction #denial #ecology
nature.com/articles/s4155…
#biodiversity #extinction #denial #ecology
COVID vaccine, treatment trials create monkey shortage for science
usatoday.com/story/news/hea…
#trials #COVID19 #vaccine #monkey #shortage #consequence
usatoday.com/story/news/hea…
#trials #COVID19 #vaccine #monkey #shortage #consequence
The #deficit #myth #deficitmyth by @StephanieKelton #MMT modern monetary theory
Myth N. 1: The #state should budget like a #household
#RealityCheck : unlike a household, a #SovereignNation, which owns its national #centralbank, issues the #currency it spends
Myth N. 1: The #state should budget like a #household
#RealityCheck : unlike a household, a #SovereignNation, which owns its national #centralbank, issues the #currency it spends
Myth N. 2: #deficit is evidence of #overspending
#RealityCheck: look to #inflation for evidence of over spending
#RealityCheck: look to #inflation for evidence of over spending
The purpose of #taxes is not to pay for #government expenditures but to help rebalancing the #wealth distribution #MMT
The sheer magnitude of the moves in many #economic #data points in recent months has overshadowed the nuances of those reports. For instance, the June @ism non-manufacturing index came in at 57.1 yesterday, a record 11.7-point gain and 7.1 points greater than expectations.
And when we look at the #ISM survey report of #commodity prices and what’s in short supply, there are many items that aren’t surprising: cleaning products, disinfectants and hand sanitizer are all up in #price and in short #supply.
Much more interesting, however, is the fact that #labor for #construction and subcontractors is back to being cited as in short #supply…
Received a call from Mr @HardeepSPuri, Hon Min of State for Commerce and Industry, GOI today afternoon. Had a long discussion with him on the steps to Revive the Economy and submitted my inputs for his consideration. (1/n)
Following were my inputs:
1. All announcements made as part of #AtmaNirbharBharat Package were about liquidity infusion & making cash available through Financial Institutions. The focus on demand side is lacking. Govt has to put money in people's hands. (2/n)
1. All announcements made as part of #AtmaNirbharBharat Package were about liquidity infusion & making cash available through Financial Institutions. The focus on demand side is lacking. Govt has to put money in people's hands. (2/n)
2. Govt can categorize sectors into 'minor affected', 'medium affected' & 'severely affected'. Help can be extend to a particular sector either in the form of financial or taxation or others forms based on the category under which a sector falls. (3/n)
The trend of strong labor #market growth continued apace in January, with a 225,000 payroll gain in the #JobsReport, and a 0.25% month-over-month rise in average hourly #earnings, bringing #wage growth back to 3.12% year-over-year.
And despite some noise under the hood of the #JobsReport, due to annual revisions, we think #labor markets remain solid.
Of particular note, we’ve been impressed by hiring at top #tech firms, which underscores the fact that while disruptive to many industries, technological #innovation also creates a great many #jobs.
We learned last week that core #goods #prices continue to remain weak, and indeed over the longer run they’ve witnessed #disinflation.
Meanwhile, while #inflation could see some support alongside a pickup in #wage growth, we think this linkage is much weaker than many suggest: higher wages don’t create meaningfully higher inflation in this era, and corporate #CFOs are beginning to recognize it.
Indeed, we think #inflation is more likely to be driven a bit higher by the weaker #USD, and perhaps a higher monetary base (potential velocity gains) and not so much from #wage increases.
Overall, despite modest disappointment in goods-producing sector hiring (outside of construction, where warmer weather and solid #housing sector dynamics kept #job growth strong), the #employment report has become dependably positive in recent years.
In the context of slowing U.S. #economic growth and moderately higher #inflation figures (at least through the year’s first half), alongside political risks both domestic and international, we think the 10-Year U.S. #Treasury yield is unlikely to exceed 2.25% this year.
And while modestly higher #inflation may be spurred by base-effects and a weaker #USD in 2020, as well as by #oil prices that could trade near the higher end of our 2020 estimated $50 to $75/bbl range for a time, the structural drivers of lower prices remain intact, in our view.
The National Commission for Enterprises in the #UnorganisedSector was set up in 2004 as an advisory body & a watchdog for the #informal sector. This NCEUS report reviews #labour #laws & #SocialSecurity systems that apply to #workers in unorganised sectors. bit.ly/2PhAOEN
It observes that while existing laws have some provisions for conditions of #work for certain workers, there is no comprehensive legal framework for the “basic and minimum conditions of work” for unorganised sector workers.
Therefore, it proposes comprehensive & protective laws for agricultural & non-agricultural workers in the unorganised sector that will regulate conditions of #work, #SocialSecurity, #welfare and #livehood promotion.
Today’s much anticipated #employment report came close to consensus at 136K jobs gained, 114K of which were private sector, although #wage rate gains disappointed a bit with average hourly earnings declining over the month, the #unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, a 50-year low.
While recent survey data has appeared more disappointing (ISM) and that warrants careful observation, we like to focus on hard data: #payroll figures represent what companies are actually doing and provide some clarity on an otherwise ambiguous set of #economic signals.
We think the @federalreserve is likely to move rates lower at least another time this year to continue its efforts to sustain the #economic cycle. The #Fed will probably seek to trim the policy rate range another 25 bps in October, leaving December open for debate.
Named after #MahatmaGandhi, the #MGNREGA, one of the largest #publicworks programme in the world, came about because of inadequate govt schemes that weren't meeting the demand for #rural #employment. ruralindiaonline.org/library/resour…
Recognizing there was persistent #unemployment in rural areas – and no #SocialSecurity mechanism for the #poor, the #MGNREGA aims to provide #wage #employment to poor #rural households, strengthen rural #livelihoods, and ensure #socialinclusion. #GandhiAt150
The Act guarantees that state govts will set up schemes to provide no less than 100 days of #employment in one financial year to every rural household whose adult members volunteer to do unskilled manual #work.
Today’s #payroll data, coming in at 263k, with decent wage gains, was very strong overall and continues to underscore that there is more dynamism to the U.S. #economy today than many appear willing to admit.
Indeed, we’ve witnessed a broad array of #wage growth measures accelerate since 2014, to levels that cannot be considered excessively low.
Vizek: "Very strong public sector, lot of informal economy. Croatia experienced slow growth before, so new normal not really new. But political willingness to reform very low."
Zubovic: positive trends in #Serbia: - rapid #growth in #IT sector over last 3/4 years w/ 3% to 6% share of GDP - Huge Chinese #investments, but with #externalities - Macroeconomic #stability, no fiscal #deficit anymore - foreign #debt declining - Substantial growth of #GDP
Today’s #CPI was a bit firmer on the core measures, and a bit weaker on a top-line basis, but overall today’s data reinforces the fact that the #Fed was right to pause policy rate hiking, and that a more data-dependent and cautious approach is precisely what’s required.
The fact is that the Fed isn’t anywhere close to being threatened by any persistent above-target #inflation pressures, and hence we think the #FOMC will continue to remain patiently on hold until inflation becomes durably greater than targeted levels (and accelerating).
Finally, while we’re not concerned about #wage growth bleeding into higher generalized #inflation, we believe the solid wage growth we’re seeing for middle- and lower-income households is vitally important to maintain if the economic cycle is to be extended.
Today’s #inflation data came in roughly as expected, with headline #CPI readings dipping to -0.1 on the month and printing at 1.9% year-over-year, slowing due to sharply falling #energy prices.
With this moderating inflation in mind, the #Fed has no reason to unsettle financial conditions further, or risk stunting growth in the broader economy, with additional policy rate hikes. The central bank should pause its rate hiking to take stock of the #economic situation.
Further, while some argue that accelerating #wage gains will feed into higher levels of #inflation than many anticipate, but we generally find this argument unconvincing and believe the wage gains are a big positive for households.
