Today's big picture is a dramatic shot of the Sahara at sunset with a massive storm over Mali and a line of clouds from the heart of Algeria's desert south east to Chad. On the right you can see tonight's storms over the #Ethiopia highlands.
The rainfall in the Western Sahara has just started but it has a few more days to run. In this animation of a simulation you see the precipitable water anomaly, which highlights areas which have much more water than normal for this time of year.
This over the same period, 88 hours, shows the overall water picture in the North Western hemisphere and you can see how water flowing south from the eastern Mediterranean is contributing some of the moisture which is creating these desert storms in the west Sahara.
See previous tweet ^^ the #EuropeBigWet is about to enter another peak phase.
The overall picture shows: 1. Monsoon moving west along the equator, 2. Atlantic picking it up and propelling it over the U.S. and Nth Atl. at Europe.
& now we can see some of it is looping back.
Today's 10-Day Rainfall forecasts for North Africa from July 9th through July 20th. On the left hand side of the plots you can see significant #DesertRain is forecast over Mali due to the processes described earlier.
48-hour rainfall forecasts (today and tomorrow from the same four models: the Euro @ECMWF, U.S. @NOAA's GFS, Canada's CMC and the Korean KMA models.
These plots show that rain in Mali is about to begin.
And finally for #NorthAfrica we have the long-range 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) forecasts - which remain remarkably well aligned.
You will get a better view of the forecast rain over the southern Arabian Peninsula later in the bulletin.
4 @NASA satellite images showing the monsoon process this morning. 1. The big storm over Mali today 2. The Indian monsoon where a lot of this water is being elevated into the jet stream 3. The heart of the Nile's rain basin 4. A traces of the monsoon jets over the Arabian Sea
This animation shows the storms coming up today over the Horn of Africa in Ethiopia's mountains.
48 Hour forecasts (today and tomorrow) from the same three models. Rains are now forecast in the west of #Somaliland
Today's #ArabianStorms were not very intense but they did see some unusual new cloud formations, possibly indicating high altitude water transport en route to join the rain making efforts over Sudan and Chad.
The 10-Day accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, KMA & ACG weather models are showing increasingly more #DesertRain in #Yemen and #Oman.
These rainfall forecasts are long-range July 9th rainfall forecasts. The16-day GFS & GEFS models, the 12 day KMA and the 15 day EPS (Euro ensemble) model forecasts for the #MiddleEast.
The next two weeks promise to bring astonishing weather to both sides of the Red Sea & across the Sahara. In this weather bulletin I will explain what the models are forecasting.
In the image above we see part of Arabia and part of the #NileBasin storms - those which feed the Blue Nile/Abbay and the Tekeze basins the source of most of the Nile's flow.
Below we see: 1. All Nile Basin rainfall as of this evening 2. All of this evenings #ArabianStorms
The rainfall we see on both sides of the Red Sea comes mostly from the same source - the monsoon over the Arabian Sea, India and South East Asia.
A satellite image from this morning shows what we currently think to be the cradle of humanity. Where we all come from.
As the UNSC met tonight to discuss the #GERD storms continued to form over Ethiopia's highlands the source of the water which is currently filling the dam.
During the UNSC meeting. Ethiopia's water minister explained how this works. "The filling of the dam is part of the construction process.... When the dam is filled the water either flows over the dam or through the bottom outlets."
The Minister later spoke to media :
Q: (@AJEnglish): Why don't you stop filling the dam?
A: All dams are filling. Why? Because it is the rainy season. In fact it is good to protect from floods. We have bountiful water. It doesn't hurt anyone.
“The #GERD will help improve the water supply & relieve pressure on the Nile River, which supplies the vast majority of the country’s fresh water. Ethiopia faces a drought that is expected to directly affect nearly 20% of its population. ...
In addition to the locust outbreak that has devoured more than 80,000 acres of crops in recent months. The GERD will contribute in regulating the country's water and reducing sediment, expanding ag enterprises, increasing hydroelectric production, and providing flood control.
On day 2 of official #GERD filling we have glimpse through the clouds and what looks like a nearly full GERD lake in a recent photograph taken after the spillways were commissioned this year.
This morning's rainfall update thread is attached here.
The thread also looks at a major #DesertRain event to the west of the Horn, over Sudan, Chad and Niger where August/September like rains appear to have come early.